MLB Pick: Underdog Value Play Wednesday

LT Profits Sports Group

Wednesday, June 25, 2014 4:00 AM GMT

Each day the LT Profits Sports Group seeks out an MLB total that does not add up and offers the most value that day. Here is their Total Value Play of the Day for Wednesday.

There could be a nice sized upset Wednesday of a division leader when Ian Kennedy and the San Diego Padres (33-44, 15-23 away) pay a visit to fellow right-hander Tim Lincecum and the San Francisco Giants (45-32, 23-17 home) in the final game of a three-game series from AT&T Park in San Francisco, CA at 3:45 ET.

The posted money line at Bet365 has San Diego as a road underdog for this contest at current odds of +115.

The Padres have gotten some unexpected offense while winning the first two games of this series by scores of 6-0 and 7-2 respectively, and they are now going for the improbable road sweep of a first-place Giants’ team that is still vying for the best record in the National League. San Diego is still closer to last place in the National League West than first place though, leading cellar dwelling Arizona by two games while trailing San Francisco by 11 ½.

The Giants have hit a much unexpected skid as they had been playing great baseball while owning the best record in all of baseball as of June 8th. However, seemingly out of the blue, the Giants have lost 11 of their last 14 contests since then and have watched their lead over the second place Los Angeles Dodgers now shrink to just three games. San Francisco also trails the Milwaukee Brewers by one game for the best record in the National League.

The Padres fired general manager Josh Byrnes on Sunday, which is probably sad news for today’s starter Kennedy as Byrnes has so much faith in him they he traded for him twice, first acquiring him from the Yankees when he was the GM of the Diamondbacks and then acquiring him again from Arizona when he was hired by the Padres. Kennedy is just 5-8 with a 3.90 ERA and 1.21 WHIP in his first full season in San Diego but he has pitched better than that.

You see, Kennedy has an impressive 103 strikeouts in 97 innings against just 26 walks and he has allowed a reasonable nine home runs in 16 starts, leaving him with a very good 3.04 FIP and 3.14 xFIP. Kennedy has also had nice success vs. the Giants in recent years while being in the National League West since 2010, as he has made 17 starts vs. San Francisco as is 7-3 with a 2.49 ERA, 1.07 WHIP and 97 strikeouts vs. 27 walks against them in 115.2 innings.

He is now facing a struggling Giant lineup that is batting just .229 vs. right-handers over the last 10 games while averaging only 3.24 runs per nine innings against them in that time.

Meanwhile, Lincecum is having another bad year for the Giants as it is becoming more and more apparent that the former two-time Cy Young Award winner will never again regain that form with his velocity not what it used to be. “Tiny Tim” is rather lucky to be 5-5 this season given his 4.90 ERA and 1.48 WHIP, and while his strikeout rate is still good at 8.38 per nine innings, that is actually a career low for him as of now and he has a high walk rate of 3.81 per nine.

He comes off of another shaky outing vs. the Diamondbacks on Friday where he took the loss allowing four earned runs on seven hits in six innings with just one strikeout. Yes, Lincecum has nice career numbers vs. San Diego but much of those numbers were accumulated by the “good” Lincecum earlier in his career, as he has allowed eight earned runs in 11.2 innings over his last two starts against the Padres.

Add this all together and the Padres seem to be offering good value at an underdog price as they go for the sweep on Wednesday.

MLB Pick: Padres +115