MLB Pick: Underdog Value Play Wednesday

LT Profits Sports Group

Wednesday, April 30, 2014 4:00 AM UTC

Wednesday, Apr. 30, 2014 4:00 AM UTC

Each day LT Profits Sports seeks an MLB overlay that has a better chance of cashing than its odds, offering long term value. Here is their Underdog Value Play for Wednesday.

Perhaps the best bullpen in baseball could make the road underdogs overlays Wednesday night when southpaw Robbie Erlin and those San Diego Padres (13-15, 6-9 away) pay a visit to right-hander Tim Hudson and the San Francisco Giants (16-11, 9-5 home) at AT&T Park in San Francisco, CA at 10:15 ET.

The posted money line at Pinnacle Sports has San Diego as a decided underdog for this contest at current odds of +154.

This is the rubber game of this three-game series after the teams split the first two contests, with the Padres pulling the 6-4 upset at +156 MLB odds Monday and the Giants winning 6-0 last night. San Diego has a decimated lineup right now with Chase Headley and Carlos Quenton on the Disabled List, and yet it has hung in there with a 13-15 record primarily due to great work by the bullpen.

The Giants currently sit atop the National League West, although it is a tight race as they lead the Colorado Rockies by just one-half game, the Los Angeles Dodgers by 1½ and these fourth place Padres by just 3½ games. San Francisco has also been carried by its pitching as it has a fine 3.28 team ERA but ranks just 23rd in the Major Leagues with a .237 batting average.

Young Erlin is just 1-3 with a 6.35 ERA and 1.41 WHIP, and he comes off of his worst start of the season as he was roughed up for eight runs on a whopping 13 hits by the Washington Nationals on Friday. However, that was really his first bad start of the season including his prior start where he gave up a deceptive four runs vs. these Giants on just three hits in six innings, with two runs coming on one swing on a Buster Poser homer.

Erlin allowed three runs and one run respectively in his first two starts, and remember that his job here to only to give the Padres five solid innings. San Francisco seems like a team that he is more than capable of accomplishing that against, especially with the Giants batting .228 vs. southpaw pitchers and .224 overall over the last 10 games.

As long as Erlin can accomplish that, then this price will look awfully good as the San Diego bullpen leads the Major Leagues with a collective 1.81 ERA while also posting an excellent 1.04 WHIP. The pen has shut down the opposition on quite a few occasions to give the crippled offense some time to win games.

Now, Hudson has been great in his first season as a Giant as he is 3-1 with a 2.19 ERA and 0.78 WHIP, and he comes off of another nice outing vs. the Cleveland Indians where he allowed one run and just four hits in seven innings. Remarkably, Hudson walked his first two batters of the season in that win in what is now 37.0 innings, and he has gone at least seven innings in all five starts this year.

However, his one loss did come to these Padres 3-1 in San Diego where he allowed two runs but eight hits in seven innings. Also, the Padres did get one bat back in recent days in Cameron Maybin, who just made his season debut on Sunday after missing the beginning of the year with a biceps injury, and Maybin has hit Hudson well going 6-for-16 with a home run against him.

Erlin is the biggest key to this contest though, and as long as he gives San Diego five decent innings, the Padre bullpen can do the rest and give the team great value at this price in San Francisco on Wednesday.


MLB Pick: Padres +154

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