MLB Pick: Underdog Value Play Wednesday

LT Profits Sports Group

Wednesday, September 18, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

Wednesday, Sep. 18, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

Each day LT Profits Sports seeks an overlay underdog that has a better chance of winning than its odds, offering long term value. Here is their Underdog Value Play for Wednesday.

A recent Cy Young Award winner could be overvalued vs. a pitcher having a better season, giving the underdogs value Wednesday night when Hisashi Iwakuma and those Seattle Mariners (66-85, 33-43 away) pay a visit to Justin Verlander and the Detroit Tigers (88-63, 48-28 home) in the third game of a four-game series from Comerica Park in Detroit, MI at 7:08 ET.

The posted money line at Pinnacle Sports has Seattle as a road underdog for this contest at current odds of +152.

The Tigers seem to be playing only for seeding over the next two weeks, as they lead the American League Central by six games over the Cleveland Indians. Detroit current holds the three-seed, but is only one game behind the Oakland Athletics for the second seed and 3½ games behind the Boston Red Sox for the top seed in the American League.

The Mariners are having another dismal season, as they are in fourth place in the West Division 23 games behind Oakland, but at least they have found an excellent second starter this season in Iwakuma to compliment their ace and former Cy Young Award winner Felix Hernandez.

Speaking of former Cy Young winners, Verlander won that award two years ago and he the came back to go 17-8 with a 2.64 ERA and 1.06 WHIP last season while striking out 239 batters and walking only 60 in 238.1 innings. However, Verlander has not lived up to his usual lofty standards this year as he is 13-11 with a higher than usual 3.66 ERA and 1.34 WHIP while allowing a .259 batting average, although he does still have 189 strikeouts vs. 68 walks.

Verlander’s last two starts are further evidence that he has become much more hittable this year as he allowed seven earned runs and 17 hits over 13.2 innings in those two outings. He even allowed nine hits in seven innings in his only start vs. Seattle this season, although he escaped with allowing two run but still took the loss way back in April.

On the other hand, Iwakuma is having a great season while staying mostly under the radar pitching in the Great Northwest, as he is 12-6 while pitching for a team that is 19 games below .500 with a terrific 2.87 ERA, 1.03 WHIP and a .225 batting average allowed.

Iwakuma also has a very good ratio of 170 strikeouts compared to just 39 walks in 203.2 innings, and he is coming off of another great outing vs. the St. Louis Cardinals Friday where he took a very unlucky no-decision despite tossing seven scoreless innings and allowing only three hits. Perhaps most importantly, Iwakuma also sparkled in his only start this year vs. the potent Detroit offense throwing six scoreless innings and allowing three hits.

Add in what looks like an overlay of a price and Iwakuma and the Mariners appear to offer great long-term value at these odds on Wednesday.


MLB Pick: Mariners +152

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