MLB Pick: Underdog Value Play Wednesday

LT Profits Sports Group

Wednesday, September 11, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

Wednesday, Sep. 11, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

Each day LT Profits Sports seeks an overlay underdog that has a better chance of winning than its odds, offering long term value. Here is their Underdog Value Play for Wednesday.

There could be an upset in a late west coast national telecast Wednesday night when Patrick Corbin and the Arizona Diamondbacks (72-72, 32-41 away) pay a visit to Hyun-Jin Ryu and the Los Angeles Dodgers (85-59, 45-28 home) in the final game of a three-game series from Dodgers Stadium in Los Angeles, CA at 10:10 ET in the nightcap of an ESPN doubleheader.

The posted money line at Pinnacle Sports has Arizona as a road underdog for this contest at current odds of +111.

The Diamondbacks are looking to avoid the sweep here after the Dodgers took the first two games of this series by scores of 8-1 Monday and 5-2 Tuesday, practically eliminating any slight chance they may have had in the playoff hunt as they now trail the Dodgers by 13 games despite being second in the National League West Division and the Cincinnati Reds by nine games for the second and last wild card spot.

Los Angeles of course has been the hottest team in baseball over the last three months and they have moved closer to clinching the division, but they could be at a bit of a disadvantage tonight with Ryu trying to pitch through back pain and Corbin, who was a Cinderella story earlier in the year, seeming straightening himself out in his last start following a couple of atrocious outings.

Corbin still has great overall numbers as he is 13-6 with a 2.97 ERA and 1.08 WHIP and a nice ratio of 165 strikeouts vs. 47 walks in 190.2 innings. However, he appeared to hit a wall in his two starts prior to his last outing while allowing a total of 13 earned runs and 16 hits in 10.1 innings, and Manager Kirk Gibson said he would contemplate going to a six-man rotation in order to give Corbin more rest is he had a third straight poor outing.

Well, that will not be necessary after he allowed three runs in eight innings vs. the San Francisco Giants last Friday, the same Giant team that reached him for five runs in five innings in his previous start. Corbin has pitched well in his five career outings vs. the Dodgers going 2-1 with a 2.49 ERA, including allowing a total of four runs in two starts vs. Los Angeles this season, and the southpaw is facing a Dodger lineup batting a dismal .207 vs. lefties the last 10 games.

Now, Ryu has been outperforming his peripherals for the most part this season while going 13-5 with a 3.02 ERA and 1.22 WHIP, but that is the least of his worries. Ryu was scratched from his scheduled start on Friday due to middle back stiffness, marking the third time in recent starts that the back has forced one of his starts to be pushed back. The difference here though is that the 13 days since his last outing has been his longest rest yet between starts.

On top of that, Ryu has not fared well vs. the Arizona lineup despite a 1-0 record in three starts against the Snakes, as he has a 5.82 ERA and 1.71 WHIP in those outings while allowing Diamondback batters to hit a preposterous .348 against him!

Add this all up and Corbin and the Diamondbacks seem to offer long-term value at an underdog price in the second game of an ESPN twinbill on Wednesday.


MLB Pick: Diamondbacks +111

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