MLB Pick: Underdog Value Play Wednesday

LT Profits Sports Group

Wednesday, September 4, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

Wednesday, Sep. 4, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

Each day LT Profits Sports seeks an overlay underdog that has a better chance of winning than its odds, offering long term value. Here is their Underdog Value Play for Wednesday.

There could be a nice upset in store Wednesday night when the suddenly inconsistent Francisco Liriano and the Pittsburgh Pirates (81-57, 36-32 away) pay a visit to Wily Peralta and the Milwaukee Brewers (59-79, 30-40 home) in the last game of a three-game series from Miller Park in Milwaukee, WI at 8:10 ET.

The posted money line at Pinnacle Sports has Milwaukee as a road underdog for this contest at current odds of +136.

The Pirates have taken the first two games of this series and with Tuesday’s victory being their 81st win, Pittsburgh will not have a losing record this season, which is the first time that has happened in over 20 years! The Pirates now lead the National League Central by two games over the St. Louis Cardinals.

The Brewers are in fourth place 22 games back and just one game ahead of the last place Chicago Cubs, no thanks to their current five-game losing streak. Still, tonight’s pitching matchup could actually give the Brew Crew some value as decided home underdogs, especially if the Pirates were in a celebratory mood following last night’s landmark win.

Yes, Liriano has terrific overall numbers for the Pirates as he is 15-6 with a 2.57 ERA and 1.19 WHIP. However, after being a model of consistency for much of the season, Liriano has been more erratic lately. In his last five outings, he has three starts over which he allowed one run in 24 innings, but he also allowed a total of 14 earned runs and 21 hits it just 6.1 innings in the other two starts vs. the San Francisco Giants and Colorado Rockies.

That sudden inconsistency does not have us too keen on laying these odds on the road with Liriano, especially since the Brewers have hit left-handed pitchers well as of late, batting .274 while averaging a whopping 6.48 runs per nine innings against them over the last 10 games. Plus, Liriano has not fared well in five career games at Miller Park, posting an ugly 5.49 ERA and 1.93 WHIP in this stadium.

Meanwhile, Peralta has just mediocre overall numbers at 8-14 with a 4.51 ERA and 1.42 WHIP, but he had gotten progressively better as the season has gone on and he almost certainly deserves a better record, especially considering that Peralta has allowed three runs or less in 11 of his last 13 starts!

Furthermore, this will be Peralta’s first ever appearance vs. Pittsburgh which should make him twice as tough and the Pirates, despite winning, have continued to have their difficulties with right-handed pitchers all year while batting only .239 against them overall.

Therefore, the Brewers appear to offer good long-term value at this nice underdog price at home on Wednesday.


MLB Pick: Brewers +136

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