MLB Pick: Underdog Value Play Wednesday

LT Profits Sports Group

Wednesday, August 28, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

Wednesday, Aug. 28, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

Each day LT Profits Sports seeks an overlay underdog that has a better chance of winning than its odds, offering long term value. Here is their Underdog Value Play for Wednesday.

There could be a second upset in as many nights in the Steel City Wednesday night when Tom Gorzelanny and the Milwaukee Brewers (58-73, 28-38 away) pay a visit to Charlie Morton and the Pittsburgh Pirates (76-55, 42-23 home) in the second game of a three-game series from PNC Park in Pittsburgh, PA at 7:05 ET.

The posted money line at Pinnacle Sports has Milwaukee as a road underdog for this contest at current odds of +136.

We were quite pleased with the result in the series opener on Tuesday despite the fact that the Brewers nearly gave the game away in a 7-6 win, and we are coming right back with the Brewers at an even better price today. Although Milwaukee is not playoff bound, it seems happy to be playing spoiler right now as the Brew Crew went into Cincinnati and beat the Reds two out of three this past weekend before winning here last night.

The Pirates seem assured of their first playoff berth in many years as they are eight games clear in the wild card race, but they have bigger aspirations as they are still just 1½ games behind the St. Louis Cardinals in the National League Central. However, the Bucs are heading in the wrong direction since having the best record in all of baseball just a short while ago as last night’s defeat made them just 6-11 the last 17 games.

The Milwaukee starter Gorzelanny hopes to keep Pittsburgh reeling, but first he must bounce back from two awful outings vs. the other two Central Division contenders, the Cardinals and the Reds, where he lasted just a total of 8.1 innings combined while surrendering 12 earned runs, raising his ERA by more than a full run. The good news though is that Gorzelanny had a 2.51 ERA over his first seven starts before those two debacles.

Thus, that figure is still a very respectable 3.60 and Gorzelanny has had good success vs. the Pirates over the years, going 2-0 with a 2.28 ERA in nine career outings against them. He certainly seems to be catching the Bucs at the right time, as Pittsburgh is batting just .232 as a team over its last 10 contests.

Now, Morton is having a fine year for the Pirates after making a belated debut, as he is 5-3 with a 3.42 ERA in 13 starts. He comes off possibly his best outing yet this year when he allowed only one run in 7.2 innings last time out, although that came vs. possibly the worst hitting team in the National League in the San Francisco Giants.

There are some warning signs here however. First of all, the 7.2 innings for Morton was a season high for a pitcher that had arm problems, which could make him a prime “bounce” candidate tonight. Secondly, he goes from facing a weak Giants’ attack to facing a Milwaukee lineup hitting an excellent .277 while averaging 4.76 runs per nine innings overall over the last 10 games. Then consider that Morton is 0-4 with a 6.25 ERA in seven career starts vs. Milwaukee.

We feel those are enough red flags to give the Brewers long-term value on Wednesday.


MLB Pick: Brewers +136

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