MLB Pick: Underdog Value Play Wednesday

LT Profits Sports Group

Wednesday, August 14, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

Wednesday, Aug. 14, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

Each day LT Profits Sports seeks an overlay underdog that has a better chance of winning than its odds, offering long term value. Here is their Underdog Value Play for Wednesday.

The underdogs may have value in a battle of All-Star pitchers Wednesday when Chris Tillman and the Baltimore Orioles (65-54, 33-29 away) pay a visit to Patrick Corbin and the Arizona Diamondbacks (61-57, 35-26 home) in the final game of a three-game series from Chase Field in Phoenix, AR at 3:40 ET in a game televised nationally on MLB Network.

The posted money line at Pinnacle Sports has Baltimore as a road underdog for this contest at current odds of +117.

The Diamondbacks are trying to stay in the playoff hunt as they have taken the first two games of this series in a couple of one-run games, first winning 7-6 on Monday and then 4-3 Tuesday. That still leaves Arizona 7½ games behind the sizzling Los Angeles Dodgers in the National League West and 5½ games behind the Cincinnati Reds for the second wild card spot.

The two losses in this series have hurt the Orioles as they have now fallen six games behind the Boston Red Sox while in third place in the American League East and they are two games behind the Tampa Bay Rays for the final wild card spot in the AL, blowing opportunities the last two nights to gain ground on a Tampa Bay team that has lost six in a row. That should only make the Orioles more motivated to avoid the sweep here though.

Corbin has received the greater publicity by far between these two pitchers as he has seemingly come out of nowhere to go 12-3 with a 2.36 ERA and 1.02 WHIP. However, you may recall that we selected Corbin as one of our prime pitchers to fade after the All-Star break and two of his three losses have indeed come within his last three starts including losing to a good hitting team from the stronger American League in the Boston Red Sox.

After taking advantage of mostly weaker hitting National League clubs for much of this season, Corbin now faces another tough AL team today as the Orioles are ranked fourth in the Major Leagues in runs scored with 4.76 per game, fifth in batting average at .265, third in team OPS at .755 and they lead the majors in home runs with 160.

While Corbin has gotten most of the publicity, Tillman was also named to the All-Star team for the American League and he actually has a better record at 14-3 while pitching in a better hitting league. Tillman did not have the best of starts this season, but since May 24th he has gone 11-1 personally and the Orioles as a team have gone 13-1 in the games he started!

The O’s may owe Tillman a win here also as he was left with a no-decision in his last start vs. the San Francisco Giants despite allowing just one run on four hits in eight innings with nine strikeouts, only to watch closer Jim Johnson allow the tying run in the ninth inning before Baltimore won in extra innings. This is his first appearance ever vs. the Diamondbacks.

It is hard to knock a team that is on a 13-1 run with its starting pitcher as an underdog, especially when it is an American League team in interleague play, so Baltimore appears to offer long-term value on Wednesday.


MLB Pick: Orioles +117

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