MLB Pick: Underdog Value Play Wednesday

LT Profits Sports Group

Wednesday, July 3, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

Wednesday, Jul. 3, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

Each day LT Profits Sports seeks an overlay underdog that has a better chance of winning than its odds, offering long term value. Here is their Underdog Value Play for Wednesday.

There may be some good underdog value by going against one of the best pitchers in the National League on national television Wednesday when Randall Delgado and the Arizona Diamondbacks (42-41, 21-25 away) pay a visit to Matt Harvey and those New York Mets (35-45, 17-25 home) in the second game of a four-game series from Citi Field in Flushing, NY at 7:10 ET in a game televised on ESPN.

The posted money line at Pinnacle Sports has Arizona as a big road underdog for this contest at current odds of +162.

Now make no mistake, Harvey is indeed one of the best pitchers in all of baseball as he has now taken over the Major League lead in FIP at an incredible 1.99, obviously making him the only pitcher with a FIP less than 2.00. Unfortunately, he pitches for a team that is closer to last place than to first place as the Mets are fourth in the National League East, six games ahead of the last place Miami Marlins and 12½ games behind the first place Atlanta Braves.

Yes, the Mets erupted for a 9-1 win on Tuesday while handing Patrick Corbin his first loss of the season, a win keyed by New York’s biggest inning of the year when it scored seven runs in the seventh inning. That game was probably an anomaly though for a team that is ranked dead last in the Major Leagues in batting (.232), 28th in OPS (.674) and 19th in runs scored at 4.00 per game.

Granted, Harvey has been phenomenal while going 7-1 with a fantastic 2.00 ERA and 0.85 WHIP while holding the opposition to a microscopic .184 batting average and he leads the National League with 132 strikeouts, which have come in only 117 innings compared to just 24 walks. However, the Mets as a team are only 10-7 in the games that Harvey has started netting a loss of -1.40 units based on wagering one unit on the closing odds from Pinnacle.

That is what happens when great pitchers usually carry high price tags while pitching for bad teams and that is precisely the case again today at these bloated odds. These is no reason to believe that Harvey will not pitch well again here, but it is unlikely that the Mets will match their offensive output of last night, which practically all came in one inning immediately follow a rain delay, vs. a competent pitcher.

Delgado has proven to be serviceable since being forced into the Arizona rotation due to the injury to Brandon McCarthy, as he has allowed three eared runs or less in all three of his starts. Delgado was a hard-luck 3-0 loser to his former team, the Atlanta Braves, in his last start despite allowing just two runs in six innings.

It should not be surprising that Delgado has made a smooth transition from the bullpen thus far as he did make a total of 24 starts for the Braves the last two seasons before coming to the desert, including one start vs. the Mets last year where he allowed three runs in 5.1 innings with five strikeouts. He is now catching a Mets’ lineup batting a pathetic .222 vs. right-handed pitchers at home this season while averaging 3.77 runs per nine innings against them here.

It may not be easy, but Arizona appears to offer long-term value at this inflated price even vs. a stud pitcher on Wednesday.


MLB Pick: Diamondbacks +162

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