MLB Pick: Underdog Value Play Wednesday

LT Profits Sports Group

Wednesday, June 12, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

Wednesday, Jun. 12, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

Each day LT Profits Sports seeks an overlay underdog that has a better chance of winning than its odds, offering long term value. Here is their Underdog Value Play for Wednesday.

In a case where one starting pitcher may not be as good as his record and one starting pitcher may be better than his record, the underdogs could hold value on Wednesday when the overachieving Paul Maholm and the Atlanta Braves (39-26, 18-19 away) pay a visit to the underachieving Edinson Volquez and the San Diego Padres (31-34, 18-14 home) in the final game of a three-game series from Petco Park in San Diego, CA at 3:40 ET.

The posted money line at Pinnacle Sports has San Diego as a home underdog for this contest at current odds of +113.

The Padres have played much better at home than they have on the road this season and San Diego is in fact now four games over .500 at Petco Park and is going for a series sweep today. The Padres have won a couple of one-run game so far in this series, first winning a 7-6 slugfest on Monday and then winning a 3-2 pitchers’ duel on Tuesday as Andrew Cashner barely outdueled Tim Hudson of the Braves.

On the flip side, the Braves are one game under .500 on the road compared to a 21-7 home record that is the best in all of baseball, so perhaps the first two results of this series should not have come as a surprise and Atlanta could be an overlay as a road favorite today.

Yes, the Braves have the pitching edge on paper based on season-to date raw stats, but both pitchers seem due for regression in opposite directions. Volquez of the Padres has always been somewhat of a mystery as he can have electric stuff at times and his record never seems to match it. This year has been more of the same as Volquez is sitting at 4-5 with a bloated 6.33 ERA and 1.65 WHIP, and those key stats have been hindered by his 33 walks in 69.2 innings.

Believe it or not there is some promising news for Volquez on the Sabremetric front as his FIP of 4.43 is running nearly two full runs better than his ERA and his 0.0 WAR means that he is exactly on par with the average Major League pitcher, which is better than you would expect given his conventional stats.

After allowing a horrific nine runs in 2.1 innings in the altitude of Colorado last time out, Volquez gets a chance to bounce back at home vs. an Atlanta offense batting just .236 on the road this season.

The southpaw Maholm is 7-4 for the Braves, and yes he did have a hard-luck no decision vs. the Los Angeles Dodgers on the road last Friday as he allowed only one run on four hits in 7.1 innings of a game Atlanta ultimately lost 2-1. Still, like his team, Maholm as not been as good on the road as at home, as that last outing notwithstanding he is 3-3 with a 4.72 ERA, 1.32 WHIP and a .256 batting average allowed away from Turner Field, compared to 1.64/1.03/,223 at home.

On top of that, Maholm is catching a San Diego lineup batting .304 while averaging a whopping 5.93 runs per nine innings vs. left-handed pitchers over the last 10 games, so the Padres should offer long-term value at this underdog price at home Wednesday.


MLB Pick: Padres +113

comment here