MLB Pick: Underdog Value Play Wednesday

LT Profits Sports Group

Wednesday, June 5, 2013 4:00 AM GMT

Each day LT Profits Sports seeks an overlay underdog that has a better chance of winning than its odds, offering long term value. Here is their Underdog Value Play for Wednesday.

A talented but struggling southpaw may provide good value Wednesday night as a prime bounce-back candidate vs. a pitcher making his first start of the year when Wade Miley and those Arizona Diamondbacks (33-25, 17-13 away) pay a visit to Joe Kelly and the St. Louis Cardinals (38-20, 18-11 home) in the third game of a four-game series from Busch Stadium in St. Louis, MO at 8:15 ET.

The posted money line at Pinnacle Sports has Arizona as a road underdog for this contest at current odds of +124.

These teams have split the first two games of this series with the Cardinals taking the series opener handily 7-1 and the Diamondbacks coming back to win 7-6 Tuesday on a Paul Goldschmidt RBI single in the 14th inning after earlier surrendering a 6-3 lead.

This series is a battle of division leaders as the Cardinals currently own the best record in the Major Leagues at 38-20, although their lead over the second place Cincinnati Reds is only 2½ games in the National League Central Division, while the Diamondbacks maintain a two-game lead over the World Champion San Francisco Giants in the National League West.

You may recall that we listed the Diamondbacks as very live longshots at 40/1 odds to win the World Series back in April, and the main reason we like Arizona is its deep young starting rotation, including tonight’s starter Miley. Now, Miley is certainly in a funk right now as he has allowed exactly seven runs in three of his last four starts to blow up what had been some good season-to-date stats up to that point.

However, we feel that Miley has both the ability and the mindset to regress to his normal level, and that level earned his some Rookie of the Year consideration last year when he went 16-11 with a 3.33 ERA, 1.18 WHIP and 144 strikeouts against only 37 walks.

Another reason why the young southpaw has a good chance to rediscover his form is that the Cardinals have been like night and day vs. left-handed and right-handed pitchers this season, batting a mere .217 while averaging 3.80 runs per nine innings vs. lefties compared to a .279 average and 5.25 runs per nine vs. right-handers.

The Cardinals were in need of a spot starter tonight as a forced doubleheader Saturday vs. the San Francisco Giants which was necessitated by a Friday rainout threw their rotation out of whack with the Cards not having an off day until next Monday. Kelly was a logical choice after making 16 starts and posting a 3.53 ERA last season, but that ERA was rather fluky and Kelly has not been good out of the bullpen this year.

Kelly finished 5-7 with a 1.38 WHIP and a .271 batting average allowed in 2012, which were truer indications of his ability than that deceptive ERA, and he is just 0-2 with a disastrous 6.75 ERA, 1.93 WHIP and a .363 batting average allowed in 16 relief appearances covering 18.2 innings this year. Kelly also has the misfortune of facing an Arizona offense that is heating up as the Diamondbacks are hitting 304 as a team and averaging 5.50 runs over their last 10 games.

Add this all up and Arizona should provide nice long-term value at this underdog price on Wednesday.

[gameodds]3/228762/238-92-43-349-192/us[/gameodds]

MLB Pick: Diamondbacks +124