MLB Pick: Underdog Value Play Wednesday

LT Profits Sports Group

Wednesday, May 29, 2013 4:00 AM GMT

Each day LT Profits Sports seeks an overlay underdog that has a better chance of winning than its odds, offering long term value. Here is their Underdog Value Play for Wednesday.

The underdogs look to have a nice pitching advantage on Wednesday night when Brandon McCarthy and the Arizona Diamondbacks (30-22, 14-10 away) pay a visit to Justin Grimm and the Texas Rangers (32-20, 15-7 home) in the first of two games from Rangers Ballpark in Arlington, TX at 8:05 ET. These teams had Tuesday off after the Diamondbacks swept a doubleheader from the Rangers on Memorial Day Monday back in Arizona.

The posted money line at Pinnacle Sports has Arizona as a road underdog for this contest at current odds of +119.

We listed the Diamondbacks as live longshots at 40/1 odds when we examined World Series Futures back in April and here they are in first place in the National League West Division just three days away from the first of June, two games ahead of the World Champion San Francisco Giants and the upstart Colorado Rockies tied for second.

We liked the Diamondback because of the depth and youth of their starting rotation, and while Patrick Corbin has been one of the biggest stories in baseball this season, Wade Miley, Ian Kennedy, Trevor Cahill and tonight’s starter McCarthy complete what we feel is a formidable staff that will almost always make Arizona an attractive underdog such as tonight.

In fact Arizona is ranked fourth in the Major Leagues with a 3.38 team ERA, and after a slow beginning in his first season in the National League, McCarthy is pitching as well as any pitcher in baseball over his most recent starts. The former Oakland hurler who gained some national attention by getting hit in the head by a line drive last year has a 0.38 ERA and a 0.79 WHIP over his last three starts!

No those are not typos, as he tossed back-to-back scoreless outings while allowing only 10 hits plus two walks in 17 innings prior to his start vs. the San Diego Padres on Friday, when he finally allowed one run but still only allowed only five hits in seven innings. McCarthy is also quite familiar with the Texas lineup after spending his career with Oakland prior to this year, and he has three Quality Starts in his last four outings vs. the Rangers.

That includes a nice little gem in his most recent start against them last season where he allowed only one run and three hits in seven innings with five strikeouts and not a single walk, needing only 88 pitches to navigate those seven innings in a 7-1 win.

Now the Rangers have also pitched well as a team this year, leading the American League with their 3.48 team ERA, but unfortunately the Wednesday starter Grimm has now contributed much to the cause. Grimm is 4-3 but with a 4.05 ERA and 1.46 WHIP, and while he has actually received credit for Quality Starts in each of his last two starts, they were both of the cheap variety as Grimm allowed a total of five earned runs and 18 baserunners in 13 innings.

Grimm allowed exactly five earned runs in each of his previous two outings, leaving him with a 5.87 ERA and a bad 1.65 WHIP over his last four starts. He is facing an Arizona lineup that has hit right-handers well at .261 this season as opposed to hitting only .239 vs. southpaws, and the Diamondbacks have produced 4.72 runs per nine innings vs. righties on the road.

Add this all up and Arizona appears to offer good long-term value at this underdog price on Wednesday.

[gameodds]3/228255/238-92-43-349-192/us[/gameodds]

MLB Pick: Diamondbacks +119