MLB Pick: Underdog Value Play Wednesday

LT Profits Sports Group

Wednesday, May 22, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

Wednesday, May. 22, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

Each day LT Profits Sports seeks an overlay underdog that has a better chance of winning than its odds, offering long term value. Here is their Underdog Value Play for Wednesday.

After banging out 15 hits on Tuesday, the road favorite may be ripe for an upset on Wednesday when Cliff Lee and those Philadelphia Phillies (22-24, 11-12 away) again pay a visit to Kevin Slowey and the Miami Marlins (13-33, 7-17 home) in the final game of a three-game series from Marlins Ballpark in Miami, FL at 7:10 ET.

The posted money line at Pinnacle Sports has Miami as a home underdog for this contest at current odds of +150.

The Marlins have the worst record in the National League but they upset the Phillies at nice +154 odds in the opening game of this series Monday with a little help from a depleted Philadelphia lineup before the Phillies got those 15 hits in a 7-3 win Tuesday to even up this series. Still, that offensive outburst was probably just an aberration.

The Phillies are averaging just 3.57 runs per game overall this season, and that average drops to 3.13 runs on the road where Philadelphia is batting a scant .236 vs. right-handed pitching. The Phils could not muster anything offensively in the 5-1 loss on Monday other than a solo home run by Domonic Brown, as Ryan Howard and Carlos Ruiz were both back in Philadelphia undergoing tests, Howard to his knee and Ruiz to his hamstring.

Ruiz has been placed on the Disabled List, and while Howard took a cortisone shot in his knee and joined the team in time to play last night, the Phillies suffered yet another injury when Chase Utley was a late scratch with a rib injury and is questionable tonight. Wednesday starter Lee has not received much run support this season and he probably wishes the Phils saved some of those seven runs and 15 hits from Tuesday for tonight given the physical state of the offense.

His pitching has been fine as usual as Lee has a 2.83 ERA and 1.08 WHIP with a great ratio of 50 strikeouts vs. 11 walks in 63.2 innings, but the fact that he is only 4-2 points to the state of the Philadelphia offense, which has struggled enough when at full strength let alone while batters are seemingly dropping like flies.

Besides, Lee is not the only pitcher here that is in good form as Slowey has a 3.44 ERA and 1.22 WHIP with 37 strikeouts vs. 12 walks in 52.1 innings, but he is just 1-4 due to the Marlins giving him only 2.78 runs per game of support. However, that one win did come vs. these Phillies with Slowey tossing a gem in Philadelphia, allowing two hits in seven scoreless innings!

Slowey also allowed only one run in 5.1 innings the first time he faced the Phillies back in April right here in this stadium, and he now gets a chance to take advantage of a short-handed lineup, especially if Utley cannot go again.

Yes, we get that the Marlins are on course to have one of the worst offenses of all time, but this is a rare occasion where their lineup is not considerably worse than that of the opposition and if Slowey can duplicate his first two starts vs. Philadelphia this season, it would give Miami great long-term value at this price at home.


MLB Pick: Marlins +150

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