MLB Pick: Underdog Value Play Tuesday

LT Profits Sports Group

Tuesday, October 8, 2013 4:00 AM GMT

Each day LT Profits Sports seeks an overlay underdog that has a better chance of winning than its odds, offering long term value. Here is their Underdog Value Play for Tuesday.

There could be a series upset potentially completed on Tuesday when Daniel Straily and the upstart Oakland Athletics pay a visit to Doug Fister and the Detroit Tigers in Game 4 of the ALDS from Comerica Park in Detroit, MI at 5:07 ET in a game televised nationally on TBS.

The posted money line at Pinnacle Sports has Oakland as a road underdog for this contest at current odds of +133.

The Detroit Tigers were decided favorites coming into this series and he actually predicted Detroit would win in four games or less, but the supposedly suspect Oakland pitching has surprisingly kept the potent Detroit offense in check and it is the A’s that have the 2-1 series lead with a chance to close out the series today.

The only game the Tigers won was a 3-2 pitching duel in Game 1 as probable Cy Young winner Max Scherzer out-dueled the Athletics’ ace Bartolo Colon. Game 2 was then another pitching masterpiece that went the way of Oakland 1-0 as Justin Verlander was in vintage form but was matched by young Sonny Grey. Game 3 was the most disappointing game for the Tigers yesterday as American League ERA leader Anibal Sanchez did not have it in a 6-3 A’s win.

So here we are in Game 4, and for the first time in this series, the Tigers do not appear to have a big pitching edge on paper. That is not to say that Doug Fister has a bad year for Detroit as he was actually one of the best fourth starters in all of baseball while going 14-9 with a 3.67 ERA and a great ratio of 159 strikeouts vs. 44 walks.

However, he was not nearly as consistent down the stretch as he was earlier on, alternating Quality Starts and poor starts over his last six outings. If that pattern continues, it would put him in line for a bad start here after allowing two runs on eight hits in six innings vs. the Minnesota Twins in his final regular season start. Perhaps most importantly, Fister was awful in his only start vs. Oakland this year allowing seven earned runs on 13 hits in just five innings!

Now, Straily had decent numbers overall this season at 10-8 with a 3.96 ERA and 1.24 WHIP, but the real story here is the nice roll he is in entering this start. You see, Straily allowed two earned runs or less in each of his last six regular season outings including allowing one earned or less three times, and he has also allowed three earned runs or less in 10 of his last 11 starts!

That stretch includes a nice start vs. these Tigers August 28th here at Comerica Park where he allowed one run in six innings of a 14-4 Oakland blowout win, and he is now facing a slumping Tiger lineup that is uncharacteristically batting .226 while averaging a pathetic 2.00 runs per game over the last 10 games.

With all of this in mind, look for the Athletics to complete the series upset at a nice underdog price in Game 4 on Tuesday.

[gameodds]3/246821/?r-1=238-92-43-349-192/us[/gameodds]

MLB Pick: Athletics +133