MLB Pick: Underdog Value Play Tuesday

LT Profits Sports Group

Tuesday, September 17, 2013 4:00 AM GMT

Tuesday, Sep. 17, 2013 4:00 AM GMT

Each day LT Profits Sports seeks an overlay underdog that has a better chance of winning than its odds, offering long term value. Here is their Underdog Value Play for Tuesday.

The wrong team may be favored in the Big Apple Tuesday night when Yusmeiro Petit and the favored San Francisco Giants (69-81, 32-43 away) pay a visit to Zack Wheeler and the New York Mets (67-82, 31-43 home) in the first game of a three-game series from Citi Field in Flushing, NY at 7:10 ET.

The posted money line at Pinnacle Sports has New York as a small home underdog for this contest at current odds of +109.

Not much has gone well for the Mets this season, especially with their All-Star pitcher and expected face of the franchise for years to come Matt Harvey lost for the year, but their other young call-up Wheeler appears to be pulling his weight and he may begin next season as the staff ace if Harvey opts for Tommy John surgery.

The Giants are just trying to avoid going from first to worst as the defending World Series Champions are now in fourth place in the National League West and just one-half game ahead of the last place Colorado Rockies. Simply put, San Francisco is not a team that deserves to be a road favorite over anyone at this time, let alone vs. a pitcher with a bright future in Wheeler that already dominated the Giants in San Francisco.

Do not be fooled by the fact that Petit is 3-0 with a 2.53 ERA and 1.00 WHIP and that the Giants as a team are 4-0 in the games that he has started since purchasing his contract from Triple-A Fresno. Petit remains a journeyman pitcher that did not pitch in the Major Leagues since 2009 until making one start for the Giants at the end of last season after they had their playoff position clinched, so do not expect his current hot streak to last much longer.

Petit’s journeys even included a stint in the Mexican League besides several minor league assignments from 2010 until September of 2012, and he is now nearly 29 years of age. The wheels may be starting to come off already as Petit lasted only 5.2 innings in his last start vs. the Rockies Wednesday, allowing three earned runs on seven six hits plus two walks while requiring 102 pitches to navigate those 5.2 frames.

Wheeler was the other highly touted prospect for the Mets besides Harvey, and he has lived up to his press clippings for the most part thus far. Wheeler is 7-5 while pitching for a team that is 15 games below .500 with a 3.22 ERA, and most impressively he has allowed three earned runs or less in 12 of his last 13 starts while allowing only four runs in his other start!

The Giants are all too familiar with what Wheeler is capable off after he shut them down by allowing one run on just three hits in seven innings on July 10th in the Bay Area. He also may be catching a Giant team in a bit of a letdown spot after beating its biggest rival, the first place Los Angeles Dodgers, in the last three games.

Add all of this up and the Mets offer value as undeserved underdogs on Tuesday.

[gameodds]3/243549/?r-1=238-92-43-349-192/us[/gameodds]

MLB Pick: Mets +109

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