MLB Pick: Underdog Value Play Tuesday

LT Profits Sports Group

Tuesday, September 10, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

Tuesday, Sep. 10, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

Each day LT Profits Sports seeks an overlay underdog that has a better chance of winning than its odds, offering long term value. Here is their Underdog Value Play for Tuesday.

The also-ran could hold value vs. a division leader on the road Tuesday night when Wily Peralta and the Milwaukee Brewers (62-80, 31-40 away) pay a visit to Shelby Miller and the St. Louis Cardinals (83-60, 44-25 home) in the opening game of a three-game series from Busch Stadium in St. Louis, MO at 8:15 ET.

The posted money line at Pinnacle Sports has Milwaukee as a large underdog for this contest at current odds of +165.

The Cardinals could be in for a bit of a letdown at the outset here as they are coming off of a humongous three-game sweep of the Pittsburgh Pirates that has catapulted St. Louis back to first place in the National League Central, one game ahead of the Pirates. Despite the sweep, the Cardinals are not hitting as well as they were earlier in the year and that also makes them vulnerable as large favorites vs. a fairly hot pitcher.

The Brewers had any playoff aspirations dashed a long time ago as they are in fourth place and 20½ games behind St. Louis, but to their credit they have continued to play hard and have now won three of their last four games overall as well as 11 of their last 17 road games after being horrific away from home most of the season.

Peralta showed great promise late in the year for Milwaukee last season and he is showing signs of being a strong finisher, as for the second straight season he has gotten better as this year has gone on. Peralta did the Cardinals a favor by tossing a Quality Start vs. the Pirates in his last start while winning 9-3, meaning that he has now allowed three earned runs or less in 11 of his last 14 starts.

Yes Peralta is still just 9-14 with a 4.51 ERA and 1.43 WHIP, but that is entirely due to a terrible start to the year as he is obviously heading in the right direction. He could also be catching the Cardinals at the perfect time as they are uncharacteristically batting just .225 overall over their last 10 games.

St. Louis sends out its Rookie of the Year candidate Miller, who is 12-9 with a 3.19 ERA and 157 strikeouts in 149.2 innings vs. 48 walks. However, Miller may be heading in the opposite direction of Peralta as he has failed to record a Quality Start in his last two outings while losing the command that he has had for much of the year, as he had seven walks vs. six strikeouts while allowing a total of 10 runs in 10 innings vs. the Pirates and Cincinnati Reds.

Miller is 2-0 in his three starts vs. the Brewers, but he was not particularly sharp despite allowing only two earned runs the last time he faced them on August 19th, as he labored through 101 pitches while lasting just 5.1 innings, no thanks to again struggling with four walks.

While we get that the Cardinals are in a division race, the Brewers have enjoyed playing spoiler lately and their pitcher seems to be in the better current form. Add in a mild St. Louis letdown factor and Milwaukee appears to offer long-term value at this price on Tuesday.


MLB Pick: Brewers +165

comment here