MLB Pick: Underdog Value Play Tuesday

LT Profits Sports Group

Tuesday, September 3, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

Tuesday, Sep. 3, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

Each day LT Profits Sports seeks an overlay underdog that has a better chance of winning than its odds, offering long term value. Here is their Underdog Value Play for Tuesday.

The home underdogs appear to offer value in a very close pitching matchup Tuesday night when Ricky Nolasco and the Los Angeles Dodgers (82-55, 39-27 away) pay a visit to Jhoulys Chacin and the Colorado Rockies (65-74, 40-30 home) in the second game of a three-game series from Coors Field in Denver, CO at 8:40 ET.

The posted money line at Pinnacle Sports has Colorado as a small home underdog for this contest at current odds of +102.

The Dodgers survived a bad performance by Clayton Kershaw to still win the series opener in a slugfest 10-8 on Monday, bringing Los Angeles to 4-3 in the seven head-to-head meetings between these clubs in Denver this season, and the Dodgers are can go on cruise control right now with 12½-game lead over the fading second place Arizona Diamondbacks in the National League West.

The Rockies are in third place but that is not saying much considering they are nine games under .500 and 18 games behind the Dodgers. To their credit though, the Rockies have actually continued to play well at home where they are 10 games over .500 at 40-30 compared to a disastrous 19 games under .500 on the road. Colorado also has probably its best pitcher on the mound tonight.

Chacin has managed to go 13-7 with a 3.08 ERA and 1.19 WHIP while pitching for a losing team, and although the Dodgers did get to Chacin a bit the first two times he faced them this season, he got his revenge in the last encounter by limiting Los Angeles to one run on six hits with six strikeouts in six innings of a 3-1 Colorado victory.

That start came during Chacin’s current hot streak that has seen him allow three runs or less in each of his last 10 starts! He is coming off of a gem vs. the San Francisco Giants last Wednesday where he allowed only an unearned run and one measly hit with nine strikeouts vs. two walks in seven innings. That marked the eighth time during this 10-start hot streak that Chacin allowed two earned runs or less and the fifth time he allowed one run or less!

That leaves Chacin with a 2.11 ERA and 1.10 WHIP over those 10 starts with a very good ratio of 51 strikeouts vs. 17 walks.

Now, we have nothing against Nolasco as he has done very little wrong since being acquired from the Miami Marlins while going 6-1 with a 2.20 ERA and 1.06 WHIP in 10 starts in a Dodger uniform. However, you may notice that those numbers are not really dramatically different from Chacin’s numbers over just about the exact same time frame, making Nolasco a tad vulnerable as a road favorite over a good home team here.

When you then add in Nolasco has a 5.45 ERA in five career starts in Coors Field, the Rockies look to offer good long-term value at an underdog price Tuesday.


MLB Pick: Rockies +102

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