MLB Pick: Underdog Value Play Tuesday

LT Profits Sports Group

Tuesday, August 27, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

Tuesday, Aug. 27, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

Each day LT Profits Sports seeks an overlay underdog that has a better chance of winning than its odds, offering long term value. Here is their Underdog Value Play for Tuesday.

In a pitching matchup that could give the underdog value vs. a team fighting for a division title Tuesday night, Kyle Lohse and the Milwaukee Brewers (57-73, 27-38 away) pay a visit to Jeff Locke and the Pittsburgh Pirates (76-54, 42-22 home) in the first game of a three-game series from PNC Park in Pittsburgh, PA at 7:05 ET.

The posted money line at Pinnacle Sports has Milwaukee as a road underdog for this contest at current odds of +115.

The Pirates are returning home from a seven-game trek to the west coast where they went 4-3, but they ended the trip on a down note by losing the last two games to the San Francisco Giants to fall one-half game behind the St. Louis Cardinals in the National League Central. The good news is it appears the Pirates are going to end their long playoff drought as they have a big nine-game cushion in the wild card chase.

The Brewers have no such playoff aspirations as they are in fourth place 19½ games behind the Cardinals, but apparently Milwaukee does not mind playing spoiler after taking two out of three from the Cincinnati Reds on the road this past weekend.

The Brewers now turn to one of their view bright spots this year in their ace Lohse, who has managed to go 9-8 for a team that is 16 games under .500 with a 3.22 ERA and 1.15 WHIP. Lohse has been very consistent while allowing three runs or less in seven straight starts and in 15 of his last 16 outings with the Brewers as a team going 12-4 in those starts. Lohse has also had great success vs. the Pirates going 9-2 with a 3.35 ERA and 1.18 WHIP lifetime against them.

That includes allowing two runs and five hits in 7.1 innings this season and Lohse is now facing a Pittsburgh lineup batting a mere .201 and averaging 3.54 runs per nine innings vs. right-handed pitchers over the last 10 games, with those figures dropping to a disgusting .178 and 2.67 runs over the last five contests.

Now you may recall that we made the Pittsburgh starter Locke the most likely pitcher to regress after the All-Star break after he was radically outperforming his peripheral numbers while actually being named to the All-Star team, and he is currently obliging! Locke has an obscene 8.76 ERA and 2.35 WHIP over his last three starts and there is still room for more regression.

That is because Locke is still 9-4 with a 3.01 ERA, and yet he has a poor 4.20 xFIP and an average 1.2 WAR. The key reason for those weak figures are Locke’s poor command numbers, as he has a high 4.51 walks per nine innings compared to only 6.64 strikeouts per nine.

With all of this in mind, look for Milwaukee to pull the upset on Tuesday.


MLB Pick: Brewers +115

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