MLB Pick: Underdog Value Play Tuesday

LT Profits Sports Group

Tuesday, July 9, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

Tuesday, Jul. 9, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

Each day LT Profits Sports seeks an overlay underdog that has a better chance of winning than its odds, offering long term value. Here is their Underdog Value Play for Tuesday.

With one starting pitcher currently pitching his best ball of the season and the other having command issues, the underdogs look to have value on Tuesday when southpaw Tony Cingrani and the Cincinnati Reds (50-39, 20-23 away) pay a visit to right-hander Wily Peralta and those Milwaukee Brewers (36-52, 21-25 home) in the second game of a three-game series from Miller Park in Milwaukee, WI at 8:10 ET.

The posted money line at Pinnacle Sports has Milwaukee as a decided home underdog for this contest at current odds of +132.

The Brewers may be in last place in the National League Central and 17½ games behind the first place St. Louis Cardinals, who have the best record in all of baseball, but Milwaukee took the series opener 4-3 here last night, thanks to All-Star Chris Gomez leaping above the wall to take a potential game-winning two run home run away from Joey Votto with two outs in the ninth inning.

The Brewers are also expected to get a major boost on Tuesday when Ryan Braun is expected to make his return after being activated from the Disabled List. Yes there are rumors abound that a drug suspension for Braun is imminent, but with no definitive word yet from Major League Baseball, he should be a boon to the Milwaukee offense at least for the time being.

Now, we have not been high on Milwaukee’s starting pitcher Peralta because we feel he relies too much on his fastball and slider, which he throws at very similar speeds and account for 90 percent of his pitches, but to his credit he has been great lately. Peralta has allowed only three earned runs in his last three starts while posting a 1.56 ERA and 1.15 WHIP in 17.1 innings, and he allowed three hits in 5.1 scoreless innings vs. the Washington Nationals last out.

He was forced out of that outing by a hamstring strain and he had this outing pushed back after originally being slated for Sunday, but he was cleared to make this start after a solid bullpen session. He now looks to build on his recent momentum vs. a struggling Cincinnati offense that has scored three runs or less in five of its last six games.

Partly because of those offensive struggles, the Reds have now lost three of their last four games to fall four games off the pace while in third place in the Central. That could put added pressure on Cingrani to keep Cincinnati in the game, and he is indeed 3-0 with a 3.40 ERA while allowing three runs or less in each of his last four starts.

However, Cingrani has only gone seven innings twice all season as he has been running up his pitch count with some questionable control, especially while walking 10 batters over 9.2 innings in his last two appearances. Add in nine home runs allowed in only 53 innings and it leaves Cingrani with a 4.24 FIP, which is running nearly a full run behind his ERA, never a good sign.

Thus, the Brewers are offering nice long-term value to beat Cincinnati for a second straight night on Tuesday.


MLB Pick: Brewers +132

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