MLB Pick: Underdog Value Play Tuesday

LT Profits Sports Group

Tuesday, July 2, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

Tuesday, Jul. 2, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

Each day LT Profits Sports seeks an overlay underdog that has a better chance of winning than its odds, offering long term value. Here is their Underdog Value Play for Tuesday.

The underdog looks to continue its dominance over its slightly favored opponent Tuesday night when Phil Hughes and those New York Yankees (43-39, 20-21 away) pay a visit to birthday boy Samuel Deduno and the Minnesota Twins (36-43, 21-20 home) in the second game of a long four-game series from Target Field in Minneapolis, MN at 8:10 ET.

The posted money line at Pinnacle Sports has New York as a small road underdog for this contest at current odds of +102.

The Yankees had lost five straight games while scoring a grand total of just 13 runs in those five losses, but New York nearly matched that total in the series opener alone here in Minneapolis while winning 10-4 on Monday and pounding out 14 hits. That drew the Yankees to within six games of the Boston Red Sox while in fourth place in the American League East. The Twins are also fourth in the American League Central, 6½ games behind the Detroit Tigers.

The Yankees may have most of their superstars on the Disabled List, but the Twins could not contain their one remaining superstar in Robinson Cano, who hit two home runs while going 3-for-4 in the opener. Thus, the Yankees continued to prove that no matter the circumstances, they simply own the Twins as New York is now an unbelievable 40-13 in the last 53 head-to-head meetings if you include the teams’ post-season matchups!

The Yankees now look to keep that dominance going with Hughes on the mound, who pitched in terrible luck in his last start vs. the Texas Rangers back in the Bronx on Thursday as he took the 2-0 loss despite allowing the two runs on only five hits in eight innings with five strikeouts against just one walk. That marked the third time in his last four starts that Hughes has allowed three earned runs or less, and yet he is 1-3 in those four starts.

Like his team, Hughes has had success vs. the Minnesota lineup as he is 2-1 in six career games against the Twins but with a 3.33 ERA and 1.15 WHIP while holding Twin batters to a .212 batting average. He is facing a Twins’ team that is batting a measly .239 vs. right-handed pitchers overall this season.

Deduno is taking the start for Minnesota on his 30th birthday, but despite that somewhat advanced age, he has rather limited Major League experience. In fact this is his first full season in the big league assuming he sticks with the Twins all year, which seems like a good assumption considering he is now 4-2 with a 3.32 ERA after limiting the Kansas City Royals to one run on five hits in seven innings while getting the win his last time out.

Still, we are talking about a pitcher that has a 4.01 ERA and 1.48 WHIP over 28 Major League games including 22 starts, and his xFIP this year of 4.14 does not support his deceptive ERA.

All things considered, the Yankees appear to offer value at an underdog price in this spot on Tuesday.


MLB Pick: Yankees +102

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