MLB Pick: Underdog Value Play Tuesday

LT Profits Sports Group

Tuesday, June 11, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

Tuesday, Jun. 11, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

Each day LT Profits Sports seeks an overlay underdog that has a better chance of winning than its odds, offering long term value. Here is their Underdog Value Play for Tuesday.

The underdogs could offer long-term value playing at home Tuesday when Cole Hamels and the Philadelphia Phillies (31-33, 15-18 away) pay a visit to P.J. Walters and the Minnesota Twins (27-33, 13-14 home) in the opening game of a three-game series from Target Field in Minneapolis, MN at 8:10 ET.

The posted money line at Pinnacle Sports has Minnesota as a home underdog for this contest at current odds of +111.

The Phillies fought hard to recently get over the .500 mark, but Philadelphia is now two games under .500 after losing the last three games to the Milwaukee Brewers, which also drops the Phillies to 15-18 on the road. They have done very few things well this season as the Phils are ranked ninth in the National League with a .247 batting average, 10th in runs scored with 235 (3.67 per game) and 12th in ERA at 4.15.

Now it is no secret that the Philadelphia bullpen is failing miserably with a 4.48 ERA, 1.46 WHIP and .263 batting average allowed, but the surprise has been that the starting pitchers, supposedly the backbone of this team, have a collective 4.01 ERA with Hamels being part of that disappointment.

Granted Hamels did pick up his second win of the year his last time out by allowing only one run and four hits in seven innings with a whopping 11 strikeouts, but that came at home vs. one of the worst offenses of all time in the Miami Marlins. That win still leaves Hamels at just 2-9 with an uncharacteristic 4.56 ERA, and the Phillies as a team are 2-11 in all the games that he has started.

Hamels does now get to face a last-place team for the second straight start, but the difference is that the Twins have a much better offense than Miami, especially at home where Minnesota is averaging 4.67 runs per game overall and is batting .266 vs. left-handed pitchers like Hamels and averaging a robust 5.80 runs per nine innings against them.

Walters struggled with the Twins last season, but now 28-year-old right-handed benefited by beginning this year in the minor leagues and he has looked like a more mature pitcher since being recalled as he is 2-1 with a 3.00 ERA and he did not allow an earned run in six innings in the loss, which came in his last outing 4-1 to the Kansas City Royals as he was done in by three unearned runs.

The irony is that the loss may have been his best outing yet, and he now gets a chance to continue to pitch well vs. a Philadelphia lineup that is batting only .234 vs. right-handed pitchers on the road this season while averaging just 2.82 runs per nine innings against them. That hardly exudes confidence in the Phillies in the road favorite role that they are cast in here.

With that in mind, the Twins appear to offer good value as home underdogs in this spot.


MLB Pick: Twins +111

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