MLB Pick: Underdog Value Play Thursday

LT Profits Sports Group

Thursday, July 11, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

Thursday, Jul. 11, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

Each day LT Profits Sports seeks an overlay underdog that has a better chance of winning than its odds, offering long term value. Here is their Underdog Value Play for Thursday.

Possibly the weakest link in the starting rotation of an otherwise red-hot team is starting on Thursday, giving potential vale to the underdogs when Drew Pomeranz and the Colorado Rockies (44-48, 18-27 away) pay a visit to the struggling Chris Capuano and the sizzling Los Angeles Dodgers (45-45, 25-21 home) in the first game of a four-game series from Dodger Stadium Park in Los Angeles, CA at 10:10 ET.

The posted money line at Pinnacle Sports has Colorado as a decided road underdog for this contest at current odds of +146.

The Dodgers are now a scorching 15-3 in their last 18 games and they have moved all the way up to second place in the National League West, now with just a 1½-game deficit after competing a three-game sweep of the first place Arizona Diamondbacks by rallying for a 7-5 win in 14 innings in the series finale on Wednesday as the Los Angeles bullpen allowed only two hits over nine scoreless innings.

While the Dodgers have certainly been impressive since calling up Yasiel Puig to ignite the offense, they did use six relief pitchers over those nine innings last night, which can derail their hot streak a bit tonight considering that they could use a deep outing from Capuano and he has probably been their most disappointing starter this year.

After a fine first season with the Dodgers last year that saw Capuano win 12 games and post a 3.72 ERA over 33 starts, he is just 2-6 this season with a 5.19 ERA and 1.46 WHIP with the league batting .289 off him. Most discouraging is that he is not improving as he comes off two awful starts over which he allowed 13 runs in eight innings, including a start vs. these Rockies in Colorado on the Fourth of July where he allowed six runs on seven hits in 4.1 innings.

Capuano lost both of those last two starts, giving him two of the losses during the Dodgers’ 15-3 run, and he was roughed up by a rather short-handed Colorado lineup last time out that was without Troy Tulowitzki and Dexter Fowler.

Now, the Rockies had been struggling offensively with those players out as well as Carlos Gonzalez missing two games this week, but Gonzalez returned last night and the offense looked better in a 5-4 win at San Diego, and the best news for the Colorado offense, and conversely bad news for Capuano, is that the All-Star Tulowitzki as well as Fowler are both expected to come off of the Disabled List today and be in tonight’s lineup!

Granted, Colorado starter and the 2010 first round draft pick Pomeranz has been a bust at the Major League level, going only 2-9 with a 4.93 ERA for the Rockies last season and, after seemingly figuring things out while going 8-1 in AAA this year, has allowed a whopping nine earned runs on 12 hits plus nine walks while lasting a total of only 8.1 innings in two starts since getting recalled.

Still, Pomeranz did have two of his better efforts vs. the Dodgers last season allowed one run or less on each occasion and the Rockies will probably have a quick hook for him if he does not improve over his first two starts.

Thus, given Capuano’s struggles and a probably depleted Dodger bullpen, we still feel that Colorado offers long-term value at a nice underdog price on Thursday.


MLB Pick: Rockies +146

comment here