MLB Pick: Underdog Value Play Thursday

LT Profits Sports Group

Thursday, May 30, 2013 4:00 AM GMT

Each day LT Profits Sports seeks an overlay underdog that has a better chance of winning than its odds, offering long term value. Here is their Underdog Value Play for Thursday.

It is quite possible that the wrong team is favored on Thursday night when Kyle Lohse and the Milwaukee Brewers (19-32, 7-15 away) pay a visit to P.J. Walters and the Minnesota Twins (22-28, 10-13 home) at Target Field in Minneapolis, MN at 8:10 ET. The Brewers have been one of the weaker road teams in baseball for several years now and they lost here in Minnesota 4-1 last night for their fifth straight loss overall and third straight to the Twins.

The posted money line at Pinnacle Sports has Minnesota as a home underdog for this contest at current odds of +105.

So the Twins are effectively going for a four-game sweep of the Brewers here as they went into Milwaukee and won on Monday and Tuesday before the scenery shifted to the Twin Cities on Wednesday. This came on the heels of the Brewers losing their last two games to the Pittsburgh Pirates at home over the weekend and Milwaukee has now dropped to last place in the National League Central, 15½ games behind the first place St. Louis Cardinals.

And this is a team that is favored on the road where it is 7-15 this season? Not only that, but the Brewers are batting just .234 overall on the road including .223 vs. right-handed pitchers while averaging a mere 3.11 runs per nine innings against them away from home. Comparatively, the Twins are batting .252 but averaging 4.65 runs per nine innings at home.

The reason that the Brewers are favored is starting pitcher Kyle Lohse, but he has not been the same while being bothered by a sore elbow as of late, and he has now gone four straight outings without recording a Quality Start, posting an ugly 6.26 ERA and 1.78 WHIP over those four starts. This is certainly not the same pitcher right now that went 16-3 with a 2.86 ERA for the Cardinals last season.

Speaking of the Cardinals, Lohse did not look good vs. his former teammates in his last start on May 19th as he allowed four earned runs on eight hits in six innings and his problematic elbow necessitated the Brewers skipping his last scheduled turn in the rotation.

Now the Twins are in fourth place in the American League Central, 6½ games behind the first place Detroit Tigers and one game ahead of the last place Kansas City Royasl, but at least Minnesota is moving in the right direction with four wins in the last five games. Today’s starter Walters was recalled to start vs. the potent Detroit lineup on Saturday, and he pitched well while leading the Twins to a monstrous 3-2 upset.

Walters allowed only two runs in six innings and he did so while pounding the strike zone issuing only one walk. Walters struggled in his rookie season with the Twins last year going 2-5 with a 5.69 ERA, but he was pitching well at AAA when he was recalled and he may have matured enough to now pitch competitively at the Major League level, at least based on his 2013 big league debut vs. one of the toughest lineups in baseball.

He is facing no such offensive juggernaut tonight so take the Twins to upset on Thursday.

[gameodds]3/228349/238-92-43-349-192/us[/gameodds]

MLB Pick: Twins +105