MLB Pick: Underdog Value Play Sunday

LT Profits Sports Group

Sunday, October 13, 2013 4:00 AM GMT

Sunday, Oct. 13, 2013 4:00 AM GMT

Each day LT Profits Sports seeks an overlay underdog that has a better chance of winning than its odds, offering long term value. Here is their Underdog Value Play for Sunday.

The probable American League Cy Young Award winner now looks like an overlay as an underdog Sunday night when Max Scherzer and those Detroit Tigers pay a visit to Clay Buchholz and the Boston Red Sox in Game 2 of the ALCS from Fenway Park in Boston, MA at 8:07 ET in a game televised nationally on FOX.

The posted money line at Pinnacle Sports has Detroit as a road underdog for this contest at current odds of +118.

The Tigers drew first blood in the ALCS last night as the Red Sox could only muster a ninth inning single by Daniel Nava off of five Tiger pitchers in a 1-0 Detroit victory here in Boston. Tigers’ starter Anibal Sanchez struck out 12 but also issued six walks in six innings, and that high pitch count necessitated the parade of relievers that followed despite the team taking a no-hitter into the ninth inning.

The Tigers now appear to be in very good shape in this series as they are up 1-0 while on the road with the probable Cy Young winner going tonight in Game 2. Perhaps best of all, Saturday’s result has led to a flood of money being poured in by bettors on the Red Sox to even this series, and that has now resulted in actually getting Scherzer at an underdog price!

Scherzer has not starter since starting Game 1 of the ALDS on the road vs. the Oakland Athletics, and he got the win in that outing while allowing two runs on only three hits with an impressive 11 strikeouts in seven innings. Then again, that is nothing new from a pitcher that is now 23-3 with a 2.90 ERA and 0.98 WHIP with 253 strikeouts in 223.1 innings against just 60 walks for the entire year combining the regular season and playoffs.

The reason that Scherzer has not started since Game 1 vs. the A’s is because he was forced to pitch two innings in relief while throwing 47 pitches in the critical Game 4 of that series with the Tigers down 1-2 in the best-of-five series, and he was the winning pitch in relief. He is now pitching on the standard four days rest since that outing on Tuesday, so he has no excuse not to be at his best today.

Scherzer faced the Red Sox twice during the regular season and he pitched well both times while allowing exactly two runs in seven innings on each occasion, allowing a total of 11 hits with 14 strikeouts vs. just three walks in those 14 innings.

Boston counters with Buchholz, who went 12-1 with a remarkable 1.74 ERA in 16 starts of a regular season that was interrupted by a long stint on the Disabled List. However, Buchholz was then not particularly sharp in Game 3 of the ALDS vs. the Tampa Bay Rays when he escaped with allowing three runs but allowed seven hits plus three walks in six innings of a game Boston eventually lost 5-4 for its only loss in that series.

Furthermore, Buchholz did not face the Tigers this season but he really did not pitch that well in two starts against them last year, allowing a total of nine earned runs on 13 hits plus four walks in only 12 innings. He is facing a Detroit lineup that is still batting .284 vs. right-handed pitching this year despite struggling a bit in the playoffs.

Add this all up and Scherzer and the Tigers seem like overlays as underdogs in Game 2 from Boston Sunday.

[gameodds]3/247268/?r-1=238-92-43-349-192/us[/gameodds]

MLB Pick: Tigers +118

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