MLB Pick: Underdog Value Play Sunday

LT Profits Sports Group

Sunday, July 28, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

Sunday, Jul. 28, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

Each day LT Profits Sports seeks an overlay underdog that has a better chance of winning than its odds, offering long term value. Here is their Underdog Value Play for Sunday.

An All-Star southpaw pitcher may be in line for some correction vs. a team that is hitting left-handers well on Sunday when Tyson Ross and those San Diego Padres (47-58, 20-35 away) pay a visit to that All-Star Patrick Corbin and the Arizona Diamondbacks (54-50, 30-23 home) in the final game of a three-game weekend series from Chase Field in Phoenix, AZ at 8:10 ET.

The posted money line at Pinnacle Sports has San Diego as a big road underdog for this contest at current odds of +168.

We backed the Padres as much smaller underdogs right here in this space Saturday with nice results as they came through 12-3 behind Andrew Cashner, who besides posting a Quality Start, also belted his first Major League home run. That makes this the rubber game of this series today after the Diamondbacks inflicted a shellacking of their own 10-0 in the series opener on Friday.

The Arizona loss yesterday combined with the Los Angeles Dodgers winning leaves the Dodgers with a 1½-game lead over these second place Diamondbacks in the National League West. The Padres leapfrogged the defending World Series Champion San Francisco Giants into fourth place with Saturday’s win, nine games behind Los Angeles.

Now, Corbin has certainly been one of the best pitchers in the National League this season and he was a worthy All-Star, as he is 12-1 with a 2.31 ERA and 1.00 WHIP, and he picked up right where he left off in his first start after the break, limiting the Chicago Cubs to one run and four hits in six innings on Tuesday.

With that said, Corbin has a 3.51 xFIP which while good is still more than a full run higher than his ERA, suggesting at least some regression is coming. Also, he was not great the last time he faced the Padres, allowing four runs (three earned) and seven hits in six innings here in Phoenix on May 26th, and he is now catching a hot San Diego lineup batting a hearty .302 vs. left-handed pitchers the last 10 games while averaging an unfathomable 12.33 runs per game against them!

The Padres are in fact averaging 5.70 runs per game overall those last 10 games, and Ross is now hoping to get similar run support, although four runs may do considering that he has allowed three runs or less in all four of his starts this season.

Of course three of those starts came back in April, but Ross had a successful return to the starting rotation on Tuesday after 19 relief appearances and a stint in the minors, getting the win over the Milwaukee Brewers while allowing only one run and two hits with six strikeouts in six innings. Ross was pulled after 82 pitches, but he showed enough to suggest that he is capable of being stretched out a bit longer if necessary today.

Ross now gets to face an Arizona lineup that is batting a nondescript .249 vs. right-handed pitchers over the last 10 games while averaging only 3.58 runs per game against them and he has the support of a good San Diego bullpen that still ranks seventh in the National League in pen ERA despite that ERA being inflated by allowing some garbage runs lately with the San Diego offense scoring so many runs and building some sizable leads.

Add this all up and San Diego looks to offer good long-term value at this big price vs. Corbin on Sunday.


MLB Pick: Padres +168

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