MLB Pick: Underdog Value Play Sunday

LT Profits Sports Group

Sunday, June 2, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

Sunday, Jun. 2, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

Each day LT Profits Sports seeks an overlay underdog that has a better chance of winning than its odds, offering long term value. Here is their Underdog Value Play for Sunday.

The big underdog is on a nice little roll as of late and offers nice value at a huge price Sunday as Jordan Lyles and those Houston Astros (19-37, 10-16 away) pay a visit to C.J. Wilson and the Los Angeles Angels (25-31, 14-15 home) in the third game of a four-game weekend wraparound series from Angel Stadium in Anaheim, CA at 3:35 ET.

The posted money line at Pinnacle Sports has Houston as an enormous road underdog for this contest at current odds of +229.

The Houston Astros still have the worst record in the American League, but they have now won four straight games including cashing for us as +214 underdogs in the first game of this series vs. the Angels 6-3 on Friday before going on to a 2-0 shutout victory last night behind Bud Norris and two relievers last night.

This was expected to be a tough transition year for the Astros in their first season in the American League after playing their entire previous 51-year history in the National League, and it has been. However, they are now a much more respectable 9-7 in their last 16 games since a 10-30 start and they are starting to get some nice pitching performances as of late, which they look to continue with today with Lyles on the bump.

Lyles is 2-1 with a high 4.50 ERA and 1.53 WHIP overall, but he has turned thing around quite nicely with three straight Quality Starts while allowing exactly one earned run in each of those three outings. He unfortunately did not factor in the decision in his last start Tuesday vs. the Colorado Rockies despite allowing only one run on six hits in seven innings as the Astros only gave him one run of support and lost 2-1 on a Colorado run in the ninth inning.

Lyles was decent while getting the win in his first ever start against the Angels earlier this year, allowing three runs on only four hits with six strikeouts in five innings of a 7-6 Houston victory, and as fate would have it his opposing pitcher today Wilson was the loser in that contest, and Lyles is catching an underachieving Angels’ lineup averaging 3.90 runs per game over the last 10 contests.

The Angels have been one of the biggest disappointments on baseball up to this point, sitting in third place in the American League West but six game under .500 and 9½ games behind the Texas Rangers. Furthermore, they have had their troubles with the last place Astros as Houston now leads the season series 5-3.

Wilson has managed to go 4-3, but with an ordinary 3.95 ERA and high 1.46 WHIP and he was rouged up by the Los Angeles Dodgers for six earned runs on nine hits while lasting just 4.2 innings his last time out on Monday. He was also hit hard by these Astros in his previous aforementioned loss to Lyles back in May, allowing seven run on seven hits plus two walks in 6.1 innings.

Considering the recent forms of both these teams and the starting pitchers, the Astros look to offer long-term value at this humongous price on Sunday.


MLB Pick: Astros +229

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