MLB Pick: Underdog Value Play Saturday

LT Profits Sports Group

Saturday, September 7, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

Saturday, Sep. 7, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

Each day LT Profits Sports seeks an overlay underdog that has a better chance of winning than its odds, offering long term value. Here is their Underdog Value Play for Saturday.

There could be value in the team with the worst record in baseball upsetting a playoff contender Saturday when the impressive Brett Oberholtzer and the Houston Astros (47-94, 24-45 away) pay a visit to Daniel Straily (81-60, 45-27 home) in the third game of a four-game series from Coliseum in Oakland, CA at 4:05 ET.

The posted money line at Pinnacle Sports has Houston as a big underdog for this contest at current odds of +190.

The Astros have already pulled one upset in this series by taking the opener Thursday 3-2 as +245 underdogs on Thursday before Oakland evened things up with a 7-5 win last night. The Athletics still lead the American League West by one-half game over the Texas Rangers and they look to be in good shape to make the playoffs regardless with a 3½-game cushion in the wild card chase.

The Astros are obviously going nowhere, but that has allowed them to take a long look at a couple of promising young pitchers in Jarred Cosart and tonight’s starter Oberholtzer, who has failed to record a Quality Start only once in his six starts while allowing a reasonable four earned runs in the lone non-quality effort.

Oberholtzer comes off of a Complete Game four-hit shutout of the Seattle Mariners where he issued just one walk, leaving him at 4-1 with a Houston team that is 47 games under .500 going 5-1 in all of his starts, with a spiffy 2.79 ERA and 1.06 WHIP and a great ratio of 30 strikeouts vs. seven walks in 48.1 innings on the year, including three relief appearances. In fact, Oberholtzer has the best ERA in the American League since July 31st at 1.98!

His five Quality Starts out of six starts have not been cheap ones either, as three of them have been scoreless outings and he allowed two runs once and three runs once. Furthermore, he allowed a total of just three home runs in the six starts.

Straily has had some good moments for Oakland such as allowing three runs over his last two starts, but he has battled with inconsistency and thus is only 8-7 with a 4.38 ERA and 1.30 WHIP on the season, and he has had some command struggles at times with 47 walks in 127.1 innings.

Finally, while most pitchers love pitching at pitcher-friendly Coliseum, Straily has a 4.31 ERA here that does not vary much from his ERA on the road while going 4-4 at home.

The price is certainly right given the pitching matchup so take Houston to pull the big upset on Saturday.


MLB Pick: Astros +190

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