MLB Pick: Underdog Value Play Saturday

LT Profits Sports Group

Saturday, August 31, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

Saturday, Aug. 31, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

Each day LT Profits Sports seeks an overlay underdog that has a better chance of winning than its odds, offering long term value. Here is their Underdog Value Play for Saturday.

There could be a major upset in store on Saturday night when southpaw John Danks and the Chicago White Sox (55-77, 24-43 away) pay a visit to right-hander Jake Peavy and the Boston Red Sox (80-56, 43-24 home) in the second game of a weekend three-game series from Fenway Park in Boston, MA at 7:10 ET.

The posted money line at Pinnacle Sports has Chicago as a huge underdog for this contest at current odds of +192.

The Red Sox won a squeaker 4-3 in the series opener on Friday in a game that pleasingly stayed ‘under’ the total for us, as Boston built a 4-0 lead and then withstood a rally from the suddenly pesky White Sox. The Red Sox thus extended their lead to 3½ games atop the American League East over the second place Tampa Bay Rays, who lost in Oakland last night.

The White Sox have no playoff intentions as they own the second worst record in the AL ahead of only the lowly Houston Astros while being in last place in the Central Division 22 games behind the first place Detroit Tigers. You would not know that by Chicago’s play of late though as the White Sox have won each of their last five series, although they would now need to win the next two games here in Beantown to keep that streak alive.

While that is a tall order, we do feel the White Sox offer nice value to at least fulfill the first half of that equation tonight, as while Peavy has shined in a Boston uniform, Danks has been just as good for Chicago as of late. Danks has allowed three runs or less in five of his last six starts, and he has been particularly sharp in his last two outings while allowing just two run in 14 innings against the Texas Rangers and Kansas City Royals respectively.

While we get that Danks is 4-10 with a 4.15 ERA, his fine 1.19 WHIP is evidence that he has pitched in some hard luck, so winning his last two starts following a 2-10 start could be the beginning of a positive correction rather than an aberration. It also helps to have the support of a red-hot White Sox bullpen that owns a spiffy 1.71 ERA and 0.99 WHIP in the last 10 games.

Now Peavy has certainly been what the Red Sox hoped for when acquiring him from these White Sox last month, going 2-1 with a 3.31 ERA and 0.98 WHIP in five starts for Boston with even those fine numbers skewed by one bad start where he surrendered six earned runs and 10 hits in just five innings vs. the Kansas City Royals.

Still, while he is facing a Chicago offense that is dead last in the American League in runs scored, the White Sox has actually improved when they easily could have quit, averaging a hearty 4.50 runs over the last 10 games. Perhaps they are taking the comments by management before the trading deadline that every White Sox player is available except Chris Sale to heart, as this does not look like the same team right now that was just going through the motions earlier.

Throw in the fact that Danks’s current form is right on par with Peavy’s and Chicago appears to offer excellent long term value at this bloated price.


MLB Pick: White Sox +192

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