MLB Pick: Underdog Value Play Saturday

LT Profits Sports Group

Saturday, July 27, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

Saturday, Jul. 27, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

Each day LT Profits Sports seeks an overlay underdog that has a better chance of winning than its odds, offering long term value. Here is their Underdog Value Play for Saturday.

The visiting starting pitcher seems undervalued Saturday night when Andrew Cashner and the San Diego Padres (46-58, 19-35 away) pay a visit to Tyler Skaggs and the Arizona Diamondbacks (54-49, 30-22 home) in the second game of a three-game series from Chase Field in Phoenix, AZ at 8:10 ET.

The posted money line at Pinnacle Sports has San Diego as a small underdog for this contest at current odds of +104.

Perhaps this line is skewed due to the standings of these two teams and due to Friday night’s result, which saw Arizona win in a 10-0 rout with Randall Delgado tossing a Complete Game three-hit shutout and the Diamondbacks’ offense pounding out 17 hits. Thus, Arizona remains one-half game behind the Los Angeles Dodgers while in second place in the National League West while San Diego is in last place nine games behind the Dodgers.

With that being said, the Padres are still 15-7 in the last 22 head-to-head meetings between these teams and they appear to have the pitching advantage with Cashner this evening, especially since San Diego has hit the Arizona starter Skaggs well in the past.

Cashner has managed to go 6-5 while pitching for a last place team with a 3.84 ERA and 1.25 WHIP, and he has a decent ratio of 73 strikeouts vs. 31 walks. Cashner is a rather pronounced groundball pitcher with a 2.37 groundball-to-flyball ratio and a reasonable eight home runs allowed in 16 starts, and perhaps most impressively he has allowed three runs or less in seven of his last eight starts with six official Quality Starts in this span.

Also noteworthy is that fact that Cashner has gone eight consecutive starts without allowing a home run, which is the second longest streak in the Major Leagues this season surpassed only by Tyler Chatwood of the Colorado Rockies with nine, but the key difference there however is that Chatwood averages fewer innings per start.

Skaggs has probably earned a lot of frequent flyer miles this season, as it seems he has shuttled between the Diamondbacks and the minor leagues all year long. Unfortunately his stints in the majors have not amounted to much as Skaggs is just 2-2 with a 4.11 ERA while yielding a nondescript .255 batting average.

Furthermore Skaggs has struggled in his two starts vs. the Padres going 0-1 while surrendering nine earned runs on 12 hits plus four walks and lasting a grand total of only eight innings in the two outings. Despite the shutout last night, Skaggs is now facing an improving San Diego offense that is still averaging 4.50 runs over the last 10 games.

Therefore, the Padres appear to offer long-term value as underdogs on Saturday.


MLB Pick: Padres +104

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