MLB Pick: Underdog Value Play Saturday

LT Profits Sports Group

Saturday, July 13, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

Saturday, Jul. 13, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

Each day LT Profits Sports seeks an overlay underdog that has a better chance of winning than its odds, offering long term value. Here is their Underdog Value Play for Saturday.

One surprising pitcher and one mostly disappointing one could produce an upset Saturday night when Tyler Chatwood and the Colorado Rockies (45-49, 19-28 away) pay a visit to Zack Greinke and the Los Angeles Dodgers (46-46, 26-22 home) in the third game of a four-game series from Dodger Stadium Park in Los Angeles, CA at 7:15 ET in a game televised regionally on FOX.

The posted money line at Pinnacle Sports has Colorado as a nice road underdog for this contest at current odds of +146.

These teams have split the first two games of this series with the Dodgers taking the series opener behind a needed strong effort by Chris Capuano Thursday and the Rockies coming back to upset Clayton Kershaw 3-0 on Friday with Juan Nicasio tossing seven scoreless innings as a whopping +214 underdog.

The Dodgers are still 16-4 in their last 20 games and have moved up to second place in the National League West despite being right at .500, 2½ games behind the Arizona Diamondbacks. The Rockies are also still in the race though two days removed from the All-Star break, as they are in third place and only 4½ games behind Arizona.

The surprising Chatwood has done his part to keep Colorado afloat, as when he held the San Diego Padres to two runs on only five hits in 6.2 innings in a 4-2 win Monday, it marked the ninth time in his last 10 starts that he allowed three runs or less, leaving him at 5-2 with a spiffy 2.74 ERA overall! Granted the one time he allowed more than three runs was against these Dodgers, but he also tossed six scoreless innings allowing five hits the first time he faced them.

Besides he will not be facing the Dodgers at full strength tonight as Matt Kemp was placed on the Disabled List this week with shoulder discomfort, Carl Crawford was scratched from last night’s lineup with lower back stiffness and, potentially worst of all, rookie sensation and the spark behind the Dodgers’ hot streak, Yasiel Puig, left Friday’s game with a hip injury. Crawford and Puig are questionable for this game, which could make the Dodgers thin in the outfield.

The Dodgers thought they were adding a co-ace to go along with Kershaw when they picked up Greinke, but while he is 7-2, Greinke has a higher than usual 3.91 ERA and 1.37 WHIP while generously allowing opposing batters to hit .274 off of him. Furthermore he has struggled in both of his starts vs. the Rockies this season allowing a total of nine earned runs on 15 hits in 10.1 innings with 10 walks against only seven strikeouts, surrendering a home run in each game!

He is now facing a Colorado offense batting .270 vs. right-handed pitchers over the last 10 games while averaging 5.40 runs per nine innings against them during that time, so the Rockies look to provide long-term value at this price on Saturday.


MLB Pick: Rockies +146

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