MLB Pick: Underdog Value Play Monday

LT Profits Sports Group

Monday, July 7, 2014 4:00 AM UTC

Monday, Jul. 7, 2014 4:00 AM UTC

Each day the LT Profits Sports Group seeks out an MLB total that does not add up and offers the most value that day. Here is their Total Value Play of the Day for Monday.

There could be a decided upset by a last place team Monday night when Kevin Correia and those Minnesota Twins (39-48, 18-26 away) pay a visit to fellow right-hander Hisashi Iwakuma and the Seattle Mariners (48-40, 21-22 home) in the first game of a four-game series from Safeco Field in Seattle, WA at 10:10 ET in a game available on ROOT.

The posted money line at Bet365 has Minnesota as a huge underdog for this contest at current odds of +185.

The Twins were hovering closer to .500 than many expected earlier this year for a team that finished an identical 66-96 each of the last two seasons, but they have now dropped to nine games under .500 and 10 games behind the first place Detroit Tigers in the America League Central as they have lost 10 of their last 13 games with the starting pitching falling apart with a 7.43 ERA in that span.

The Mariners meanwhile are much improved over the American League West doormats of recent years as they are in third place and only seven games behind the division leading Oakland Athletics while surprisingly sitting at eight games over .500 as we approach the All-Star break, Seattle’s best record at this stage in quite a few years.

Despite the recent pitching woes for Minnesota, Correia has not been part of that as the veteran is actually pitching his best ball of the season right now. Correia may not have great numbers for the season at 4-10 with a 4.95 ERA and 1.44 WHIP, but he is currently on a major roll having allowed two runs or less in four of his last five starts after limiting the Kansas City Royals to two runs in six innings last Wednesday.

Correia is facing a Seattle lineup that has struggled mightily vs. right-handed pitchers in its spacious home stadium, as the Mariners are batting a disgusting .207 while averaging 3.58 runs per nine innings against them in the Emerald City.

Furthermore you cannot blame the Minnesota bullpen for the Twins’ slump as that unit is fourth in the American League with a 3.29 ERA and it has a scintillating 1.83 ERA and 0.93 WHIP over the last 10 games.

The weak Seattle offense always makes the Mariners dicey propositions when favored by this much vs. right-handers at home, even with a great pitcher like Iwakuma on the mound. And besides Iwakuma has not pitched quite as well this season as he did last year as he is 6-4 with a 3.33 ERA and had allowed 10 earned runs in just nine innings over his previous two starts before settling down vs. Houston last out allowing one run on seven hits in six innings.

That was vs. one of the worst hitting teams in the majors vs. right-handed pitching though, whereas the Twins are more of a middling team against them batting .242 and averaging 4.45 runs per game vs. righties for the year, and those figures have risen to a solid .261 and 4.54 runs per game over the last 10 contests,

With all of this in mind, Minnesota offers very nice odds for an upset in Seattle on Monday.

MLB Pick: Twins +185

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