MLB Pick: Underdog Value Play Monday

LT Profits Sports Group

Monday, June 30, 2014 4:00 AM UTC

Monday, Jun. 30, 2014 4:00 AM UTC

Each day the LT Profits Sports Group seeks out an MLB total that does not add up and offers the most value that day. Here is their Total Value Play of the Day for Monday.

A shaky road team as of late with a bad bullpen could be vulnerable as a decided road favorite Monday night when Garrett Richards and the Los Angeles Angels (45-35, 19-21 away) pay a visit to fellow right-hander Hector Noesi and the Chicago White Sox (39-44, 21-18 home) in the first game of a three-game series from U.S. Cellular Field in Chicago, IL at 8:10 ET.

The posted money line at Pinnacle Sports has Chicago as a nice home underdog for this contest at current odds of +137.

The Angels remain in second place in the American League West at 5½ games behind the Oakland Athletics, but just imagine how close they would be if their bullpen was not so bad that they were involved in a rare trade of closers this weekend acquiring Jason Grilli from the Pirates for Ernesto Frieri. Grilli is probably not the answer however after the 37-year-old had an anomalous All-Star season last year, and he took his first loss for the Angels yesterday.

The White Sox are in fourth place in the American League Central but they may be exceeding expectations at just five game below .500 and they remain a reasonable 7½ games behind the first place Detroit Tigers, who have not begun to run away with the division yet as many experts had predicted prior to the season.

Now do not get us wrong, we are very high on the Angels’ starter Richards, who has been a fixture on our bi-weekly FIP Leaderboards this season. After all, Richards is making a bid to make the All-Star Game at 8-2 with a 2.76 ERA, 1.12 WHIP and a good ratio of 99 strikeouts vs. 38 walks in 101 innings. Furthermore he is entering this contest on a roll having allowed two runs or less in each of his last five starts.

That does not mean that there are no danger signs for the Angels here though, especially when you consider that Richards has probably not been this big of a favorite on the road in his entire career until now. Also, he has yet to record a Complete Game this season and has just one in his Major League career that began in 2011, so the Los Angeles bullpen that 25th in the majors with a 4.28 ERA will almost certainly be called upon.

And then there is also the fact that the Halos have not been a particularly good road team as of late, going 4-11 in their last 15 games away from Anaheim after losing two out of three in Kansas City this weekend. Richards is facing a White Sox lineup that is batting a surprisingly potent .264 vs. right-handed pitchers at home while averaging 4.90 runs per nine innings against them here in Chicago.

Now Noesi does not have impressive numbers by any means as he is 2-5 with a whopping 5.07 ERA and 1.49 WHIP, but he has been pitching much better than that as of late, in fact allowing three earned runs or less in five of his last seven starts after limiting the Baltimore Orioles to two runs in seven innings in his last start last Wednesday in Camden Yards.

The White Sox also have good momentum as they return home from a long 11-game road trip, ending the trip in style by winning the last three games vs. the first-place Blue Jays in Toronto over this past weekend! Also note that Chicago actually has a winning record at home at three games over .500, so perhaps they can get even closer to the Tigers in the division while being at home for the following week.

All things considered, the White Sox appear to offer good value as decided home underdogs on Monday.

MLB Pick: White Sox +137

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