MLB Pick: Underdog Value Play Monday

LT Profits Sports Group

Monday, September 16, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

Monday, Sep. 16, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

Each day LT Profits Sports seeks an overlay underdog that has a better chance of winning than its odds, offering long term value. Here is their Underdog Value Play for Monday.

There could be an upset in a matchup of two teams trying to avoid finishing in last place Monday night when Edwin Jackson and the Chicago Cubs (63-86, 34-40 away) pay a visit to Wily Peralta and the Milwaukee Brewers (65-83, 33-41 home) in the first game of a four-game series from Miller Park in Milwaukee, WI at 8:10 ET.

The posted money line at Pinnacle Sports has Chicago as a road underdog for this contest at current odds of +109.

Besides the fact that the Cubs’ road record is actually one game better than the Brewers’ home record, Chicago seems to be enjoying its spoiler role lately with recent wins over the Cincinnati Reds and Pittsburgh Pirates. Of course the Cubs are not in a spoiler role tonight against fellow also-rans, but Chicago does not get a chance to achieve another goal.

That would be escaping the National League Central Division basement, as the Cubs trail fourth place Milwaukee by 2½ games, so this four-game head-to-head series gives the Cubs a perfect opportunity. Surprisingly these teams have met in Milwaukee only six times this year with the Brewers winning the first four meetings and the Cubs winning the last two back in late June.

Cub starter Edwin Jackson has shown some nice improvement as of late, as he has allowed three earned runs or less in four of his last five outings including the last three in a row, and he has a 2.89 ERA over those last three outings after helping the Cubs play spoiler by limiting the Reds to one run in seven innings in a 9-1 win his last time out last Tuesday. He also allowed just one run in eight innings the last time he faced the Brewers back in Wrigley Field July 31st.

Jackson now gets a chance to take advantage of a Milwaukee lineup that is batting a mere .226 vs. right-handed pitchers over the last 10 games while averaging only 3.93 runs per nine innings against them, and playing at home has not meant much to the Brewers this year as they are averaging only 3.99 runs per game at Miller Park.

Now we actually like the Milwaukee starter Peralta and he pitched well for a fairly extended period following a brutal start to the season. However Wily is starting to level off a bit despite posting official Quality Starts in his last three outings, as he barely met the requirements in all three efforts, in fact meeting the bare minimum in two of them by allowing three earned runs in six innings each time and he allowed three earned runs in 6.2 innings in the other outing.

Thus Peralta only has a 4.34 ERA in those last three starts and he did not pitch particularly well in his last two starts vs. the Cubs this year, allowing exactly three earned runs in five innings in each start while yielding 13 hits plus three walks over those 10 total innings.

Add this all up and the Cubs seem to offer long term value as underdogs on Monday.


MLB Pick: Cubs +109

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