MLB Pick: Underdog Value Play Monday

LT Profits Sports Group

Monday, September 2, 2013 4:00 AM GMT

Each day LT Profits Sports seeks an overlay underdog that has a better chance of winning than its odds, offering long term value. Here is their Underdog Value Play for Monday.

There could be an upset by an American League spoiler over a fading National League playoff hopeful in interleague play Monday when Esmil Rogers and the Toronto Blue Jays (62-75, 27-41 away) pay a visit to Brandon McCarthy and the Arizona Diamondbacks (69-66, 39-29 home) in the first game of a three-game series from Chase Field in Phoenix, AZ at 4:10 ET.

The posted money line at Pinnacle Sports has Toronto as a road underdog for this contest at current odds of +140.

Believe it or not, there once was a time this season when the Los Angeles Dodgers were not running away in the National League West, and it was the Diamondbacks that were in first place for most of the season up until them. Unfortunately, Arizona is now in danger of missing the playoffs completely as it is six games behind the Cincinnati Reds for the final wild card spot after losing two out of three to the San Francisco Giants over the weekend.

In fact the Diamondbacks have now lost three of their last four games while scoring a total of just seven runs in those four contests, and that is a concern today because McCarthy could use as much run support as he can get.

McCarthy had a long two-month stint on the Disabled List with shoulder troubles, and he simply has not been the same pitcher since returning as the Diamondbacks lost his first five comeback starts before he finally broke through with a win vs. the last place San Diego Padres in his last outing. That still leaves McCarthy with an ungodly 6.60 ERA and 1.60 WHIP over his last three efforts.

Granted the Blue Jays are another last place team, but McCarthy does not figure to have as easy a time as he did vs. the San Diego lineup vs. a Toronto squad that comes out of the stronger American League East and that is batting a potent .277 vs. right-handed pitchers while averaging 4.80 runs per game against them over the last 10 games.

The Blue Jays may be in last place after being the favorites to win the American League East before the season, but they are apparently enjoying the spoiler role as they won two out of three games in each of their last two series vs. a couple of American League wild card hopefuls in the New York Yankees and Kansas City Royals. They now get a chance to play spoiler for the third straight series, only this time vs. a wild card contender from the weaker National League.

Granted Rogers has just one Quality Start in his last five starts for Toronto as he continues to bounce between the rotation and the bullpen, but he should benefit from facing a National League team that is not familiar with him and he has the support of a hot Toronto bullpen that has recorded a 2.84 ERA over the last 10 games.

Throw in the Diamondbacks’ penchant for fading away late the last few years and the Blue Jays look to offer nice value at this underdog price Monday.

[gameodds]3/242357/?r-1=238-92-43-349-192/us[/gameodds]

MLB Pick: Blue Jays +140