MLB Pick: Underdog Value Play Monday

LT Profits Sports Group

Monday, August 12, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

Monday, Aug. 12, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

Each day LT Profits Sports seeks an overlay underdog that has a better chance of winning than its odds, offering long term value. Here is their Underdog Value Play for Monday.

Two teams trying to stay alive in their respective division races square off in interleague play Monday night when Scott Feldman and the Baltimore Orioles (65-52, 32-27 away) pay a visit to Wade Miley and the Arizona Diamondbacks (59-57, 33-26 home) in the first game of a three-game series from Chase Field in Phoenix, AZ at 9:40 ET.

The posted money line at Pinnacle Sports has Baltimore as a small underdog for this contest at current odds of +107.

The Orioles began a two-week stretch of interleague games out west last week and so far so good, as they are 4-1 after first sweeping two games from the San Diego Padres and then taking two out of three from the San Francisco Giants this past weekend. That still leaves Baltimore in third place in the American League East, 4½ games behind the division leading Boston Red Sox.

Just as importantly the Orioles are 1½ behind both the Tampa Bay Rays and Oakland Athletics, who are tied for the two American League wild card spots. Baltimore still lacks a true ace on the pitching staff however, so the O’s added depth to the starting rotation by acquiring Feldman from the Chicago Cubs at the trading deadline.

Feldman was having a nice year with the Cubs, where he was 7-6 but with a 3.46 ERA and an excellent 1.14 WHIP while yielding a .234 batting average. Now, many felt that Feldman would regress returning to the better hitting American League after taking advantage of weaker lineups in his first year in the National League, and that appears to have come to fruition is he is 2-3 with a 5.70 ERA and 1.32 WHIP in a Baltimore uniform.

However, Feldman may get a reprieve and return to his Cubs’ form tonight as he is facing a National League team in its own stadium, which means no designated hitter. Also on a positive note, while Feldman has had his issues at Camden Yards, he is a perfect two-for-two in Quality Starts on the road since coming to the Orioles.

The Diamondbacks led the National League West for much of this season, but that was before the Dodgers started playing like a team possessed and Arizona’s playoff prospects do not look too good right now despite being in second place, as the Snakes are 7½ games behind Los Angeles in the division and 5½ games behind the Cincinnati Reds for the final wild card spot.

Tonight’s starter Miley was a Rookie of the Year candidate last year when he won 16 games and finished with a 3.33 ERA, 1.18 WHIP and 144 strikeouts against only 37 walks. Now Miley has just recently begun to approach that form this season as he has lowered his ERA to 3.56, but is WHIP is up to 1.33 and his ratio of 106 strikeouts vs. 49 walks in 141.2 innings is not where it was last season.

Furthermore the young southpaw is now facing a potent American League lineup that ranks fourth in the Major Leagues in run scored with 4.77 per game, fifth in batting average at .266 and third in team OPS at .757, thanks to boasting the Major League home run leader Chris Davis.

All things considered, the better Baltimore team from the superior league offers long-term value at an underdog price on Monday.


MLB Pick: Orioles +107

comment here