MLB Pick: Underdog Value Play Monday

LT Profits Sports Group

Monday, June 24, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

Monday, Jun. 24, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

Each day LT Profits Sports seeks an overlay underdog that has a better chance of winning than its odds, offering long term value. Here is their Underdog Value Play for Monday.

There appears to be value in fading one of the most overrated teams in baseball on national television Monday night when Madison Bumgarner and the San Francisco Giants (38-37, 14-22 away) pay a visit to Hyun-Jin Ryu and the Los Angeles Dodgers (32-42, 19-20 home) in the first game of a three-game series from Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles, CA at 10:10 ET in a game televised on ESPN.

The posted money line at Pinnacle Sports has San Francisco as a small underdog for this contest at current odds of +103.

The Dodgers have burned more money for bettors than any other team in the National League this season, as they sit at -18.61 units based on betting one unit per game on them through Sunday, June 23rd. They are -8.74 units here at home where they are 19-20 despite being favored more often than not. Los Angeles is in last place in the National League West and 8½ games behind the first place Arizona Diamondbacks.

The defending World Champion Giants are not having the easiest of time defending their title as they are just on game over .500 overall, although that is still good enough for second place and three games behind the Diamondbacks. The problem for San Francisco has been disappointing starting pitching, but Bumgarner is one hurler that has turned his season around and whose overall numbers are on par with recent seasons.

Bumgarner was erratic early on this year, but he has resumed being his old self while going 3-0 with a 2.37 ERA and a tiny 0.84 WHIP with a terrific ratio 22 strikeouts against six walks in 19 innings over his last three starts. That leaves Bumgarner at 7-4 with a 3.25 ERA, 1.01 WHIP and a .200 batting average allowed for the season, and he has 97 strikeouts in 97 innings against just 29 walks.

He also tossed a masterpiece the first time he faced the Dodgers this season, pitching eight scoreless innings while allowing only two hits and not walking a single batter. That was not the first time that Bumgarner has shut down the Dodgers either, as he is 6-2 in eight lifetime starts against them with a 2.53 ERA, a miniscule 0.99 WHIP and 43 strikeouts vs. only 11 walks in 53.1 innings.

Now Ryu is having a fine Major League rookie season, as the South Korean import is 6-3 with a 2.96 ERA and 1.18 WHIP with 79 strikeouts vs. 27 walks while pitching for a last place team. However, the league may be catching up with him as he has been very mediocre over his last two outings despite getting credit for two cheap Quality Starts.

First Ryu allowed three earned runs on 11 hits in six innings vs. the Diamondbacks and then he surrendered three earned runs on five hits plus two walks in six innings in a loss to the New York Yankees in his last start on Wednesday. Ryu was not very effective the last time he faced the Giants either as he was touched up for four earned runs on eight hits plus two walks in six innings.

Finally, the Giants have won the last five head-to-head meetings with the Dodgers this season since Los Angeles took the first encounter of the year, and look for San Francisco to make it six straight in this series as an underdog given this pitching matchup Monday.


MLB Pick: Giants +103

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