MLB Pick: Underdog Value Play Monday

LT Profits Sports Group

Monday, June 10, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

Monday, Jun. 10, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

Each day LT Profits Sports seeks an overlay underdog that has a better chance of winning than its odds, offering long term value. Here is their Underdog Value Play for Monday.

The home underdogs could have the pitching advantage Monday night when Homer Bailey and the Cincinnati Reds (37-26, 15-15 away) pay a visit to Scott Feldman and the Chicago Cubs (25-35, 14-18 home) in the opening game of a four-game series from Wrigley Field in Chicago, IL at 8:05 ET.

The posted money line at Pinnacle Sports has Chicago as a home underdog for this contest at current odds of +112.

Now there is little doubt that the Reds are the better team on paper here, but they have hit a bit of a skid while losing four of their last five games including dropping two out of three at home to the division leading St. Louis Cardinals this past weekend when they had a chance to gain ground in the National League Central. Instead, they remain in a second place tie with the Pittsburgh Pirates four games behind St. Louis.

The Cubs meanwhile are next in fourth and a whopping 14½ games out of first. Chicago did salvage the finale of a three-game series against the Pirates 4-1 on Sunday though after dropping the first two games of that series and they are a more respectable 7-5 in their last 12 games. They also have one of their hotter starting pitchers on the mound tonight.

Feldman is in his first season in the National League after spending his entire career with the Texas Rangers prior to this year, and he seems to be enjoying the experience as he has now allowed two earned runs or less in nine of his last 10 starts after limiting the Los Angeles Angels to two runs on six hits in six innings last time out. That leaves Feldman at 5-4 while pitching for a team that is 10 games under .500 with a excellent 2.84 ERA and 1 17 WHIP.

Furthermore Feldman has yet to allow more than two earned runs in any of his five starts here at Wrigley Field while posting a sparkling 1.64 ERA and 0.94 WHIP in 33 innings of work in the Windy City. The one negative for Feldman is that his only bad outing in his last 10 starts came against these Reds when he allowed five runs on seven hits in 5.1 innings three starts ago in Cincinnati, but he should make the right adjustments at home given his two nice starts since.

Now Bailey has a 3.84 ERA and 1.17 WHIP this season despite his 3-4 record, but he has rather severe home vs. away splits, actually pitching considerably better at home despite Great American Ball Park being a hitter’s stadium. Bailey is 2-0 with a 2.61 ERA in six starts in that launching pad, but in his six road starts, he is just 1-4 with a 5.11 ERA while permitting opponents to bat .281 off of him.

Although the Cubs have never been known for their offense, Bailey has had his problems against them with a 4.92 ERA, 1.56 WHIP and .285 batting average allowed in 11 career starts. Also, the best batting split for the Cubs this season has been vs. right-handed pitchers at home, as they are actually batting a potent .271 and averaging 5.20 runs per nine innings in that situation.

Thus, the Cubs seem to offer long-term value with Feldman as home underdogs on Monday.


MLB Pick: Cubs +112

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