MLB Pick: Total Value Play of the Day Wednesday

LT Profits Sports Group

Wednesday, July 9, 2014 4:00 AM UTC

Wednesday, Jul. 9, 2014 4:00 AM UTC

Each day the LT Profits Sports Group seeks out an MLB total that does not add up and offers the most value that day. Here is their Total Value Play of the Day for Wednesday.

There could be a somewhat unexpected pitchers’ duel Wednesday night in the Queen City when young Dallas Beeler and the Chicago Cubs (38-51, 19-31 away) pay a visit to veteran Alfredo Simon and the Cincinnati Reds (48-42, 24-19 home) in a battle of right-handers from Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati, OH at 7:10 ET.

The posted total at Pinnacle Sports is 7½ for this contest with the current odds on the ‘under’ set at -103.

The Reds are making a nice push in the National League Central after a slow start to their season as they have gone 19-8 in their last 27 games and have pulled to within one-half game of the second place Cardinals and 3½ games behind the division leading Brewers! Cincinnati has also now taken the first three games of this long five-game series after sweeping a doubleheader on Tuesday, overcoming a 5-0 deficit to win the nightcap 6-5.

The Cubs meanwhile have now lost five straight games since a surprising four-game winning streak and they are in last place in the division, 9½ games behind these Reds and 13 games behind first place Milwaukee. Chicago has gotten good enough pitching this year with a respectable 3.71 team ERA, but the Cubs are 29th in the Major Leagues in batting at just .237 and 24th in runs scored at 3.83 per game.

You would be hard pressed to find a better story in baseball this season than Simon, a 33-year-old that had very mediocre career numbers coming into this season. Now out of nowhere Simon has gone 11-3 to tie Zack Greinke and Adam Wainwright for the National League lead in wins, and he has a sparkling 2.78 ERA and 1.05 WHIP while working on a string of seven straight Quality Starts including allowing four runs in 21.1 innings his last three outings.

Frankly we do not quite believe the year that Simon is having ourselves and we feel that negative regression is inevitable, but we also see no reason why he cannot continue his joy ride for at least one more start considering the offense he is facing today.

Besides the bad Cubs’ overall offensive numbers for the year mentioned earlier, they are also batting only .226 vs. right-handed pitchers overall while averaging 3.58 runs per nine innings against them, and Simon has already taken advantage of Chicago three times this season allowing a total of three earned runs and just 14 hits in 19 innings.

However, Simon may not be the only pitcher that does well in this contest as Beeler sparkled in his Major League debut vs. the Washington Nationals allowing just an unearned run and only four hits in six innings with six strikeouts in a very unfortunate 3-0 loss. Beeler has the look for a pitcher that could be tough his first time through the National League, as he has a good sinking fastball in the low 90s that induced a 3.50 groundball/flyball ratio in his first start.

That is actually nothing new as Beeler has a fat 3.67 GB/FB ratio in the minor leagues over the entire season last year. He now gets to face a Cincinnati lineup batting just .235 vs. right-handers over the last 10 games while averaging only 2.73 runs per nine innings against them in that time.

With all of that in mind, let us go ‘under’ the total in Cincinnati on Wednesday.

MLB Pick: Cubs, Reds ‘under’ 7½ (-103)

comment here