MLB Pick: Total Value Play of the Day Wednesday

LT Profits Sports Group

Wednesday, July 2, 2014 4:00 AM UTC

Wednesday, Jul. 2, 2014 4:00 AM UTC

Each day the LT Profits Sports Group seeks out an MLB total that does not add up and offers the most value that day. Here is their Total Value Play of the Day for Wednesday.

Expect a very low scoring game Wednesday in a pitcher’s park with two good pitchers on the hill when Johnny Cueto and the Cincinnati Reds (43-40, 24-22 away) pay a visit to fellow right-hander Tyson Ross and the San Diego Padres (37-47, 22-23 home) in the final game of a three-game series from Petco Park in San Diego, CA at 3:40 ET.

The posted total at Bet365 is 6 for this contest with the current odds on the ‘under’ set at -115.

The Reds had been on fire before arriving in San Diego as they entered this series on a five-game winning streak including sweeping a four-game series from the Giants in San Francisco this past weekend, but the lowly Padres have taken the first two games of this series winning 1-0 Monday and 8-2 last night. That still leaves the Reds at 14-6 the last 20 games though and they are seven games behind first place Milwaukee while third in the NL Central.

The Padres were flirting with the NL West basement for a while but the two wins the last two nights has allowed them to pass Colorado and move into third place. However, they are only one game ahead of those fourth place Rockies and 2½ games ahead of last place Arizona, as opposed to 11½ games behind the first place Giants.

Although you would not know it from his unlucky 8-5 record, Cueto has been one of the best pitchers in the National League this year as he leads the entire Major Leagues with his 1.88 ERA to go along with a microscopic 0.84 WHIP and a .171 batting average allowed, and he also has a great ratio of 122 strikeouts vs. 29 walks in 124.1 innings! He comes off of his fourth straight outing of allowing two runs or less, limiting the Giants to two runs in 8.1 innings Friday.

And remember that Cueto pitches his home games in the launching pad that is Great American Ball Park, so just imagine what he could do if he pitched in pitchers’ ballparks like this one more often! Games at Petco Park have average a mere 6.20 runs per game combined this season, with the ‘under’ going 28-15.

Oddly Cueto has only made one start here in his career, allowing two runs in 5.2 innings back in 2012. Nonetheless, he should have success vs. a San Diego lineup that is dead last in the Major Leagues in scoring (2.99 runs per game), batting average (.213) and team OPS (.607).

Now Ross may be just 6-8, but just like the entire San Diego pitching staff he has not gotten much run support as he has a 3.18 ERA, 1.27 WHIP and a .238 batting average allowed to go along with 102 strikeouts in 107.2 innings.

And Ross’s numbers are even better here in his spacious home park where he has a 2.39 ERA and 1.03 WHIP with 63 strikeouts vs. 17 walks in 60.1 innings. In fact, Ross has pitched so well that whispers are some pennant contenders have approached the Padres about the possibility of acquiring him.

Ross has faced Cincinnati twice in his career, once last season and once this year, and he allowed exactly one run in seven innings on each occasion despite both starts coming in the hitter’s paradise of Cincinnati, allowing those two total runs on just seven hits with 14 strikeouts over the 14 innings.

Therefore, look for an extremely low scoring game in Cincinnati on Wednesday.

MLB Pick: Reds, Padres ‘under’ 6 (-115)

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