MLB Pick: Total Value Play of the Day Wednesday

LT Profits Sports Group

Wednesday, June 4, 2014 4:00 AM GMT

Each day the LT Profits Sports Group seeks out an MLB total that does not add up and offers the most value that day. Here is their Total Value Play of the Day for Wednesday.

The scoreboard operator could be kept busy in a battle of right-handers in the Lone Star State Wednesday night when Bud Norris and the Baltimore Orioles (29-27, 18-15 away) pay a visit to Nicholas Martinez and the Texas Rangers (29-29, 13-14 home) in the second game of a three-game series from Globe Life Park in Arlington, TX at 8:05 ET.

The posted total at Pinnacle Sports is 9 for this contest with the current odds on the ‘over’ set at -126.

The Orioles captured the opening game of this series 8-3 last night for their third straight win, and those eight runs leaves Baltimore averaging 7.0 runs in the three wins. Thus the Orioles maintained their second place standing in the American League East at 4½ games behind the red-hot Toronto Blue Jays.

The Rangers meanwhile had appeared to turn a corner when they recently visited Detroit and took three out of four games from the Tigers, but that momentum was short-lived as Texas has now lost three of its last four games to fall back to the .500 mark and is in fourth place in the American League West at seven games behind the first place Oakland Athletics, as the Rangers were passed for third place by the suddenly surging Seattle Mariners last night.

Baltimore may need to continue its hot hitting to have a chance to make it four straight wins as Norris has been a disappointment since being acquired from the Houston Astros at mid-season last year. Norris was acquired to aid a Baltimore playoff push, but instead posted a lofty 4.80 ERA and 1.68 WHIP despite a 4-3 record for the Orioles last year, and he is just 3-5 with a 4.04 ERA this season after allowing eight earned runs in 12 innings his last two starts.

In fact Norris has recorded only three Quality Starts in his 10 total starts this year with only two of them coming in his last eight appearances and one coming in his last six outings. Norris usually pitches to contact with just 40 strikeouts vs. 20 walks in 62.1 innings, and when you add in his seven home runs allowed, the end result is a 4.56 FIP and a 4.57 xFIP, both of which are running about one-half run worse than his already sub-par ERA.

The Rangers may not be as potent offensively as in past seasons, but they are coming around nicely vs. right-handed pitchers batting .293 while averaging a hearty 5.11 runs per nine innings against them over the last 10 games. Also the Baltimore bullpen has not been providing much relief lately with a 4.83 ERA over the last 10 contests, leaving the Orioles 17th in the majors with a 3.83 bullpen ERA overall.

Now, Martinez actually has a 2.75 ERA while going 1-1 in 10 appearances including five starts, but that is extremely deceptive as he has a lofty 1.50 WHIP and a .282 batting average allowed, along with a poor ratio of just 20 strikeouts vs. 17 walks in 39.1 innings. Most recently, he gave up four earned runs on nine hits in just 5.2 innings by the Minnesota Twins, and he was lucky to allow only four runs after getting out of a bases-loaded, no-out jam unscored upon.

Martinez is facing a Baltimore offense that is batting a solid .273 vs. right-handed pitchers on the road this season while averaging 5.01 runs per nine innings in that situation. Also, the Texas bullpen has had its struggles all season is it ranks 27th in the majors with a 4.35 ERA.

Therefore, look for both teams to do their fair share of scoring so go ‘over’ the total in Arlington on Wednesday.

[gameodds]3/287547/?r-1=238-92-43-349-192/us[/gameodds]

MLB Pick: Orioles, Rangers ‘over’ 9 (-126)