MLB Pick: Total Value Play of the Day Wednesday

LT Profits Sports Group

Wednesday, May 21, 2014 4:00 AM UTC

Wednesday, May. 21, 2014 4:00 AM UTC

Each day the LT Profits Sports Group seeks out an MLB total that does not add up and offers the most value that day. Here is their Total Value Play of the Day for Wednesday.

After a couple of high scoring games to begin this series, look for a third straight ‘over’ Wednesday night when southpaw Jose Quintana and the Chicago White Sox (23-24, 12-14 away) pay a visit to right-hander Jeremy Guthrie and the Kansas City Royals (22-23, 12-11 home) at Kauffman Stadium in Kansas City, MO at 8:10 ET.

The posted total at Pinnacle Sports is 8 for this contest with the current odds on the ‘over’ set at -114.

These two teams are now tied for third place in the American League Central at seven games behind the first place Detroit Tigers after the White Sox took the first two games of this three-game series by identical final scores of 7-6. The White Sox had one of the worst offenses in baseball in 2013 but they have been pleasant surprises in that department this year, ranking fourth in the Major Leagues in scoring at 4.96 runs per game and fifth in batting at .262.

The Royals meantime come off of one of their most successful seasons in ages at 86-76 last year and they were actually in the American League wild card hunt until the final weeks of the season. They had appeared to have turned things around this year also by winning five of their previous seven games before Chicago came to town. The good news about this series though is that the Kansas City offense has continued its upward spiral after a terrible start.

Unfortunately the same cannot be said about the pitching this week and we do not expect that to change with our old friend Guthrie on the hill. You may recall that Guthrie topped our list of the most overrated pitchers in baseball early this year and he seems to be obliging us nicely so far at 2-3 with a 4.76 ERA and an alarming 12 home runs allowed already in nine starts.

In case you were wondering why we were so down on Guthrie after he recorded a career high 15 wins last season, it was because he did that while posting the worst FIP of any qualifying pitcher in the majors at 4.79, which we felt was a surefire sign of negative regression this year. Well, lo and behold Guthrie currently has the worst FIP in the majors at 5.64, except this time his mainstream numbers are reflecting that, unlike last year.

Guthrie has already faced the White Sox once this season and he did not pitch particularly well, allowing four earned runs on seven hits plus four walks with three strikeouts in 5.2 innings. He is tackling a Chicago offense that is batting 20 points higher vs. right-handed pitchers this season (.264) than vs. southpaws (.244).

Now, we actually like Quintana as we have always felt that he was underrated in the past. He was victimized by a lousy White Sox offense when he became the King of the No-Decision last year, going 9-7 in 33 starts with a good 3.51 ERA and 1.22 WHIP. Now, in a year where the White Sox are actually hitting, they are still not quite supporting Quintana as well as their other pitchers as he is just 2-3 with a 3.67 ERA and 1.28 WHIP.

Still, Quintana is not quite pitching as well as he did last year either, especially while yielding a .261 batting average. He has also had his difficulties with a Kansas City lineup whose biggest strength was battering left-handed pitching over the last couple of years, as he is 0-3 with a 4.11 ERA lifetime vs. the Royals. Perhaps the worst news for Quintana is that Kansas City is batting .314 vs. southpaws the last 10 games while averaging 6.53 runs against them!

Thus, look for both teams to get their fair share of runs and for this contest to go ‘over’ in Kansas City on Wednesday.


MLB Pick: White Sox, Royals ‘over’ 8 (-114)

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