MLB Pick: Total Value Play of the Day Wednesday

LT Profits Sports Group

Wednesday, October 16, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

Wednesday, Oct. 16, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

Each day the LT Profits Sports Group seeks out a total that simply does not add up and therefore offers the most value that day. Here is their Total Value Play of the Day for Wednesday.

After a very well-pitched series on both sides so far, there may finally be some scoring in a battle of fourth starters Wednesday when Jake Peavy and the Boston Red Sox pay a visit to Doug Fister and the Detroit Tigers in Game 4 of the ALCS from Comerica Park in Detroit, MI at 8:07 ET in a game televised nationally on FOX.

The posted total at Pinnacle Spots is 7½ for this contest with the current odds on the ‘over’ set at a positive +104.

After the Tigers took the series opener 1-0 while taking a no-hitter into the ninth inning and the Red Sox rallied against the Detroit bullpen to win 6-5 in Game 2 after Max Scherzer had allowed two hits in seven innings for Detroit, it was Boston’s turn to win 1-0 in Game 3 yesterday as the Tigers wasted another great pitching performance, this time by Justin Verlander.

While both offenses have been quiet save for the grand slam by David Ortiz for the Red Sox in the eighth inning of Game 2, it is only fair to note that the rotations shook out so that each team pitched its top three starters in varying order over the first three games. Now, neither manager has elected to bring back his Game 1 starter on three days rest, meaning that Game 4 is a legitimate matchup of each team’s fourth starter and the offenses finally have a chance to shine.

The Red Sox acquired Peavy at the trading deadline to try and bolster their staff, but he really did not show much improvement over his time with the White Sox. Peavy finished a deceptive 12-5 during the regular season, as he had a high 4.17 ERA over the full season and a 4.04 ERA in 10 starts for Boston, during which he recorded just five Quality Starts. He did not record one in Game 4 of the ALDS vs. the Tampa Bay Rays either when he was pulled after 5.2 innings.

Peavy faced the Tigers once this season and it came in his final start as a member of the White Sox on July 25th. The outing was not a memorable one either as he allowed four earned runs in seven innings with Torii Hunter, Victor Martinez and Brayan Pena all hitting home runs off of him and Peavy needing 118 pitches to negotiate those seven innings.

That was not the first time that the Tiger hit Peavy hard either, as he has just a 4.83 ERA while going 4-5 in 12 career starts against them.

Now, truth be told, Fister of the Tigers was actually one of the better fourth starters in baseball when looking at his full body of work, as he finished 14-9 with a 3.67 ERA and a nice ratio of 159 strikeouts vs. 44 walks in 208.2 innings during the regular season. However, Fister’s previous season high for innings pitched in a year had been 171 in his second season with Seattle back in 2010, and that may have been a contributing factor to an inconsistent September.

Fister posted a 4.17 ERA and an ugly 1.51 WHIP over his last seven regular season starts, and in all honesty, he was lucky to meet the bare minimum requirement for a Quality Start vs. the Oakland Athletics in Game 4 of the ALDS when he allowed three earned runs in six innings, as he surrendered seven hits, one walk, a two-run homer to Jed Lowrie and he even threw a wild pitch for good measure.

Fister faced the Red Sox twice this season, and while he was admittedly great in a start at Fenway Park in September, he struggled in his start vs. Boston here at Comerica Park allowing six earned runs on 11 hits in just 3.1 innings! Furthermore, Fister is 2-4 in eight career starts vs. the Red Sox with a 4.36 ERA and 1.57 WHIP while allowing Boston batters to hit a bloated .301 off of him.

Add all of this up and look for the offenses to get back on track for an ‘over’ in Detroit on Wednesday.


MLB Pick: Red Sox, Tigers ‘over’ 7½ (+104)

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