MLB Pick: Total Value Play of the Day Wednesday

LT Profits Sports Group

Wednesday, October 9, 2013 4:00 AM GMT

Each day the LT Profits Sports Group seeks out a total that simply does not add up and therefore offers the most value that day. Here is their Total Value Play of the Day for Wednesday.

Tension should be high and runs should be scarce Wednesday night when rookie Gerrit Cole and the Pittsburgh Pirates pay a visit to Adam Wainwright and the St. Louis Cardinals in the deciding Game 5 of the NLDS from Busch Stadium in St. Louis, MO at 8:07 ET in a game televised nationally on TBS.

The posted total at Pinnacle Spots is 6½ for this contest with the current odds on the ‘under’ set at -113.

Well, two of the four LDS series in baseball have ended, but two are going to a winner-take-all deciding game including this series, in which the Cardinals forced this Game 5 with a masterpiece by rookie Michael Wacha in Game 4 in which a home run by Pedro Alvarez was the only run he allowed in a 2-1 win on the road in Pittsburgh.

Now the Cardinals can come back with their ace Wainwright while returning home, which is certainly no surprise. The Pirates on the other hand have elected to forego Game 1 starter and veteran A.J. Burnett in favor of rookie and Game 2 hero Gerrit Cole, and frankly it is difficult not to like Manager Clint Hurdle’s decision there either.

Wainwright has had a nice career, but this may have been his best season yet as he went 19-9 with a 2.94 ERA with an almost video-game like 219 strikeouts vs. 35 walks in 241.2 innings! That success then continued into Game 1 of this series when he limited the Pirates to one run on three hits in seven innings with the lone Pittsburgh run again coming on an Alvarez solo homer, one of three dingers for him in this series.

That outing marked the third straight time that Wainwright has practically dominated the Pittsburgh lineup, with all three of those starts coming here at Busch. In his last two starts vs. the Pirates during the regular season, Wainwright allowed a total of three runs and a mere seven hits in 14 innings with 14 strikeouts.

As for Cole, he is obviously no ordinary rookie as the number one draft pick of the 2011 MLB Draft has lived up to that billing. Cole made his Major League debut on June 11th of this season and he went on to allow three earned runs or less in 18 of his 19 regular season starts, and he certainly entered these playoffs with great momentum by going 5-0 in his last five outings.

Well, you can now make it 6-0 when you tack on Game 2 when Cole allowed one run and only two hits in six innings in his post-season debut as he led the Bucs to a humongous 7-1 win in St. Louis after Burnett had been pummeled in a 9-1 defeat in Game 1. Cole now has a 1.66 ERA, 0.97 WHIP and 44 strikeouts in 38 innings vs. 11 walks in those last six starts while allowing two runs or less on every single occasion.

Thus, the combination of two hot pitchers and the normal anxiety that comes with elimination games should result in a low scoring affair in Game 5 on Wednesday.

[gameodds]3/246823/?r-1=238-92-43-349-192/us[/gameodds]

MLB Pick: Pirates, Cardinals ‘under’ 6½ (-113)