MLB Pick: Total Value Play of the Day Wednesday

LT Profits Sports Group

Wednesday, September 25, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

Wednesday, Sep. 25, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

Each day the LT Profits Sports Group seeks out a total that simply does not add up and therefore offers the most value that day. Here is their Total Value Play of the Day for Wednesday.

There should be a low scoring game Wednesday night between two teams just waiting for the season to end on Sunday when Cole Hamels and the Philadelphia Phillies (72-85, 29-47 away) pay a visit to Brad Hand and the Miami Marlins (58-100, 32-45 home) in the final game of a three-game series from Marlins Ballpark in Miami, FL at 7:10 ET.

The posted total at Pinnacle Spots is 7 for this contest with the current odds on the ‘under’ set at -123.

Both of these teams are just going through the motions right now and the first two games of this series both went ‘under’ easily with the Marlins taking the series opener 4-0 on Monday and the Phillies coming back to take a 2-1 snoozer last night. Those two results bring the ‘under’ to 7-1 in all the head-to-head meetings here in Miami this season, and there is no reason to expect anything different tonight with the lack of excitement for this contest.

The Marlins are the worst hitting team in the National League, batting just .228 over the entire season and averaging 3.19 runs per game. The Phillies have not exactly lit up the scoreboard either despite an exponentially higher payroll than Miami, averaging 3.80 runs overall, and while the Phils are batting .244 as a team, they are only at .234 vs. southpaws like Hand.

Hamels may be a disappointing 8-14, but he cannot be blamed for the lack of run support he has gotten from the struggling Philadelphia offense. In spite of that, the Phillies had won seven consecutive games that Hamels had started before that streak was broken vs. the New York Mets last time out, and despite the overall record, Hamels still has an excellent 3.62 ERA and 1.16 WHIP with a great ratio of 196 strikeouts vs. just 48 walks in 214 innings.

In other words, the Phillies made the right choice when locking Hamels up to a long-term contract and making him their ace, as he is not to blame for this lost season. Hamels has also been dominant in his four starts vs. the pathetic Miami lineup this year despite a 1-2 record against the Marlins, as he has a 2.00 ERA and 0.81 WHIP while limiting Marlin batters to a .189 batting average with 32 strikeouts against a mere four walks in 27 innings!

Hand first broke into the Major Leagues for the Marlins two years ago, but he has pitched just 14.1 innings at the big league level this year with one start and five relief appearances and he is 1-1 with a good 3.14 ERA and 0.91 WHIP while yielding just a .122 batting average. That one win came against these Phillies, although it came in a brief one-inning relief appearance where he did not allow a run or a hit.

Still, if Hamels continues his mastery of the Marlins, Hand could have some leeway here in regards to this ‘under’ and the Miami bullpen has been a strong suit and probably the best aspect of the entire team outside of super rookie starting pitcher Jose Fernandez., so go ‘under’ in South Beach on Wednesday.


MLB Pick: Phillies, Marlins ‘under’ 7 (-123)

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