MLB Pick: Total Value Play of the Day Wednesday

LT Profits Sports Group

Wednesday, September 18, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

Wednesday, Sep. 18, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

Each day the LT Profits Sports Group seeks out a total that simply does not add up and therefore offers the most value that day. Here is their Total Value Play of the Day for Wednesday.

Although only one of these American League East Division rivals is still in the playoff hunt, both are struggling offensively entering play north of the border Wednesday night when Phil Hughes and the New York Yankees (79-72, 35-41 away) pay a visit to J.A. Happ and the Toronto Blue Jays (69-81, 37-39 home) in the second game of a three-game series from Rogers Centre in Toronto, ON Canada at 7:07 ET.

The posted total at Pinnacle Spots is 9 for this contest with the current odds on the ‘under’ set at -120.

While the Yankees are still alive in the wild card hunt, they did themselves no favors by losing their fourth straight game in the series opener here last night in a low scoring affair 2-0 after getting swept three games by the first place Boston Red Sox over the weekend. That loss combined with a win by the Texas Rangers drops the Yankees 3½ games out of a wild card spot with the Cleveland Indians and Baltimore Orioles also ahead of them in that chase.

The Blue Jays have no such concerns as the preseason favorites to win the East find themselves in last place, as their supposedly improved pitching has disappointed and for the second straight season they have lost their top slugger Jose Bautista for the year, which has contributed to their lack of offense lately. Now, while each starting pitcher in this game has an ERA over 5.00 for the year, the quiet bats of each team should help both of them look much better.

In fact, both starters have actually already been pitching better as of late. Hughes has actually now allowed three earned or less in each of his last five starts, although that did not stop Manager Joe Girardi from demoting him to the bullpen briefly only to discover his replacement David Huff was worse! Hughes has also allowed three earned runs or less in all three of his starts vs. the Blue Jays this season.

Hughes now gets to face a Toronto team that is averaging just 2.60 runs per nine innings over the last five games overall while scoring three runs or less in four of those games and four runs in the other. Despite the Blue Jays’ win last night, they failed to score a run outside of two solo homers by Rajai Davis and Colby Rasmus.

Meanwhile the southpaw Happ has now allowed three earned runs or less in three consecutive starts. He is facing a Yankee lineup averaging an identically bad 2.60 runs over the last five games that Toronto is over that same stretch, as the “Bronx Bombers” are batting a putrid .179 as a team over those games.

Furthermore, while the Yankees have struggled to score runs vs. all kinds of pitching this year, they have been worse vs. left-handers averaging 3.89 runs per nine innings against then over the entire season as opposed to averaging 4.28 runs vs. right-handed pitchers.

While these teams will probably combine to score more than the two runs they scored last night, we still expect a relatively safe ‘under’ in Toronto on Wednesday.


MLB Pick: Yankees, Blue Jays ‘under’ 9 (-120)

comment here