MLB Pick: Total Value Play of the Day Wednesday

LT Profits Sports Group

Wednesday, September 11, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

Wednesday, Sep. 11, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

`Each day the LT Profits Sports Group seeks out a total that simply does not add up and therefore offers the most value that day. Here is their Total Value Play of the Day for Wednesday.

It should be another low scoring affair when the top two teams in the American League East get together on national television Wednesday night when Ryan Dempster and the Boston Red Sox (88-58, 41-33 away) pay a visit to Alex Cobb and the Tampa Bay Rays (78-65, 44-27 home) in the second game of a three-game series from Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, FL at 7:10 ET in what is the first game of an ESPN doubleheader.

The posted total at Pinnacle Spots is 7½ for this contest with the current odds on the ‘under’ set at +100.

The Red Sox won a great pitching duel 2-0 in the series opener Tuesday as Clay Buchholz tossed five scoreless innings in his return from the Disabled List and the bullpen completed the shutout, overcoming a typically great performance from Tampa Bay ace David Price. These teams have certainly become accustomed to tight, low-scoring affairs as last night’s result made the ‘under’ 9-0 in the last nine meetings this season!

The American League East race is becoming a formality as Tuesday’s win pushed the Red Sox to an 8½-game lead over the second place Rays, but Tampa Bay does find itself in a wild card race that is getting tighter. The Rays are trying to hold on to that second and last wild card as they cling to a 1½ -game lead over both the Cleveland Indians and Baltimore Orioles with the New York Yankees just two games behind and the Kansas City Royals three games back.

The Rays have picked a bad time to go on a 1-4 run, but they look to snap out of it tonight with Cobb on the hill, who has been quite steady this season. Yes Cobb was touched up for four runs on seven hits in six innings by the Seattle Mariners last time out, but he had allowed two runs or less in all four of his starts since coming off of the Disabled List and actually in five straight starts going back to his last start in June before being disabled, so he should bounce back fine.

Cobb is 8-3 for the season with a spiffy 2.99 ERA and 1.19 WHIP and he has a good ratio of 104 strikeouts against 37 walks in 114.1 innings. Even when he allows contact, Cobb has done a good job of making batters hit the ball on the ground as he has a 2.86 groundball-to-flyball ratio. Cobb has yet to taste defeat at Tropicana Field either, going he is 5-0 with a 2.93 ERA and 1.16 WHIP here this season.

Granted, Dempster has been a disappointment for the most part for the Red Sox as he is 8-9 with a 4.79 ERA and 1.45 WHIP, obviously struggling with the transition to the American League after being one of the better hurlers in the National League while with the Chicago Cubs for many years. However, in keeping with the ‘under’ theme of this head-to-head series, he has done some of his best pitching this year against the Rays.

Dempster has faced Tampa Bay twice this season and although he is 0-1 in those games, he pitched well on each occasion while allowing a grand total of four runs and 10 hits in 13 innings with 13 strikeouts vs. four walks. He now gets to face a Rays’ offense averaging just 2.38 runs per nine innings vs. right-handed pitchers over the last 10 games.

With all of this in mind, look for the 10th straight ‘under’ between these teams this year on ESPN Wednesday.


MLB Pick: Red Sox, Rays ‘under’ 7½ (+100)

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