MLB Pick: Total Value Play of the Day Wednesday

LT Profits Sports Group

Wednesday, September 4, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

Wednesday, Sep. 4, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

Each day the LT Profits Sports Group seeks out a total that simply does not add up and therefore offers the most value that day. Here is their Total Value Play of the Day for Wednesday.

Their could be a pitching duel between a top young prospect and a cagey veteran hurler Wednesday night when Taijuan Walker and the Seattle Mariners (62-76, 31-38 away) pay a visit to Ervin Santana and the Kansas City Royals (72-66, 37-33 home) in the third game of a four-game series at Kauffman Stadium in Kansas City, MO at 8:10 ET.

The posted total at Pinnacle Spots is 8 for this contest with the current odds on the ‘under’ set at -107.

The Royals have overcome a slow start to this season and are now trying to gain a playoff spot, as an 8-2 run over the last 10 games has pulled Kansas City to within 4½ games of the Tampa Bay Rays for the final wild card position, although the playoffs still seem like a tall order with three other clubs splitting those two teams.

The Mariners are heading in the other direction going 3-9 in the last 12 games, mainly due to a severe lack of offense. We could be getting a nice glimpse of Seattle’s future tonight though in the highly touted Walker, who was impressive in his Major League debut.

Yes it was “only” the team with the worst record in baseball in the Houston Astros but Walker got the win while allowing just an unearned run on two hits plus one walk in five innings on Friday. He demonstrated great poise on the mound and showed off a fastball that consistently clocks in at 94-96 MPH as well as a potentially devastating 92 MPH cutter and an above average curveball.

The Mariners are only expected to give Walker one more start this season after tonight’s outing after he tossed 141 minor league innings this year, and we expect him to relish these opportunities. Scouts have gushed at the drastic improvement in Walker’s mechanics and control since last season and he always rated high in athleticism.

Yes, the Royals are hitting better since George Brett became the hitting coach, but Walker seems capable of taking advantage of their unfamiliarity with him here.

Meanwhile, the veteran Santana is quietly putting together a nice bounce-back season in Kansas City after struggling for the Los Angeles Angels the last couple of years. Do not be fooled by the 8-8 record as Santana has a good 3.19 ERA and 1.14 WHIP, and he grades out well Sabremetrically too with a 3.59 xFIP and 2.8 WAR.

Santana has held his form well as he has allowed two earned run or less in three of his last four starts despite unfortunately failing to get a win in any of those games, and he should benefit from facing a Seattle offense that is batting a putrid .214 overall while averaging only 2.77 runs per nine innings over the last 10 games.

Thus, runs should come at a premium in an ‘under’ in Kansas City on Wednesday.


MLB Pick: Mariners, Royals ‘under’ 8 (-107)

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