MLB Pick: Total Value Play of the Day Wednesday

LT Profits Sports Group

Wednesday, August 28, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

Wednesday, Aug. 28, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

Each day the LT Profits Sports Group seeks out a total that simply does not add up and therefore offers the most value that day. Here is their Total Value Play of the Day for Wednesday.

Two promising young starting pitchers each making their first start ever vs. tonight’s opponent should translate to a low scoring game when Garrett Richards and the Los Angeles Angels (59-71, 28-34 away) pay a visit to Chris Archer and the Tampa Bay Rays (74-56, 43-25 home) in the second game of a three-game series at Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, FL at 7:10 ET.

The posted total at Pinnacle Spots is 7½ for this contest with the current odds on the ‘under’ set at -106.

Although it is far too late to have any significance, the Angels have suddenly won four games in a row since being swept in three games at home by the Cleveland Indians last week, with the fourth win coming in dramatic fashion in the series opener here last night as the Halos overcame an earlier four-run deficit and rallied for two runs in the ninth inning for a 6-5 win. Los Angeles is now up to third in the American League West but is not a playoff factor.

Meanwhile the Rays are very much in the thick of the playoff hunt as they lead the wild card race by one-half game over the Oakland Athletics and have a 3½ game cushion on the Indians, and they also still trail the Boston Red Sox by 2½ games for the American League East title, which would of course be preferable to avoid the one-game Wild Card Playoff. Thus this is an inopportune time for Tampa Bay to be on a three-game losing streak.

Today they turn to the rookie Archer to try and snap that streak, and the youngster has shown no nerves in the heat of a pennant race as he is 7-5 with an excellent 2.93 ERA and 1.09 WHIP while allowing only 72 hits in 95.1 innings. He enters off of two very good starts vs. the New York Yankees and Toronto Blue Jays respectively over which he allowed a total of three runs and only eight hits and two walks in 14 innings.

Archer can have continued success tonight vs. an Angels’ lineup that has never seen him before, particularly since the Halos are batting only .239 and averaging just 3.29 runs per nine innings vs. right-handed pitchers the last 10 games despite the fact that they have started winning some games.

Richards is 4-5 with a 3.95 ERA overall in 40 appearances for the Angels, but he has pitched much better than that since moving into the starting rotation. Richards has made six starts since taking the spot of an ineffective Joe Blanton and he has allowed three runs or less in five of them.

He appeared to be on his way to a shutout last time out vs. the Mariners as he allowed only four hits in 7.1 scoreless innings and was at only 89 pitches with one out in the eighth when he was hit with a line drive and was forced to leave. The injury turned out to be nothing more than a forearm contusion though, so he is taking this start on normal rest.

The Rays are only averaging 3.60 runs per game in their last 10 contests, so they are probably not pleased about facing an unfamiliar pitcher for the first time tonight, especially one with ability.

With all of this in mind, go ‘under’ at St. Petersburg on Wednesday.


MLB Pick: Angels, Rays ‘under’ 7½ (-106)

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