MLB Pick: Total Value Play of the Day Wednesday

LT Profits Sports Group

Wednesday, August 21, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

Wednesday, Aug. 21, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

Each day the LT Profits Sports Group seeks out a total that simply does not add up and therefore offers the most value that day. Here is their Total Value Play of the Day for Wednesday.

A game featuring one of the more underrated pitchers in baseball and another pitcher that has had uncanny success vs. tonight’s opponent could produce an ‘under’ Wednesday when Kevin Correia and the Minnesota Twins (55-69, 27-36 away) pay a visit to the Anibal Sanchez and the Detroit Tigers (73-52, 33-30 home) in the second game of a three-game series from Comerica Park in Detroit, MI at 7:08 ET.

The posted total at Pinnacle Spots is 8½ for this contest with the current odds on the ‘under’ set at -110.

The Tigers lead the American League Central by 5½ games over the second place Cleveland Indians while the Twins are in fourth place 17½ games out, but that did not stop Minnesota from pulling the 6-3 upset in the series opener as a +179 underdog Tuesday. That contest ‘pushed’ the total of 9.

We mentioned the latter because these clubs have made a habit of playing relatively low scoring games against each other, with the ‘under’ going 15-5-1 in the last 21 meetings including 10-3-1 so far in the 2013 season series, and the pitching matchup tonight seems conducive to another ‘under’.

Sanchez is generally well respected, but he is never mentioned among the best pitchers in the league and we feel that is where he is under-appreciated because he really can be that good. Many are turned off by his 11-7 record while pitching for a potent offense. However, you would have a tough time convincing the Kansas City Royals that he can’t be an elite pitcher after he held them to one run in 7.1 innings in his last start.

Despite the W/L record, which is basically meaningless anyway, Sanchez has a terrific 2.50 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP while allowing a .225 batting average and he has a fantastic 144 strikeouts vs. 39 walks and only six home runs allowed in 133 innings, leaving him second in the Major Leagues behind only Matt Harvey with a 2.38 FIP!

Now, Correia has been serviceable for the Twins this year although the bottom line is that he has very mediocre numbers at 8-9 with a 4.61 ERA and 1.44 WHIP with only 80 strikeouts in 140.2 innings. However, it seems he always saves his best for the Tigers despite the fact that Detroit has the best offense in the league.

Correia has faced the Tigers once this season and he allowed only two runs in seven innings of a 3-2 Minnesota victory as a +135 home underdog. That made Correia a perfect four for four in Quality Starts vs. Detroit in his career with all of those starts coming within the last two years. He has a 3.16 ERA and 1.01 WHIP in those outings while avoiding trouble by walking just two batters in 25.2 innings.

Thus, look for the ‘under’ pattern in this head-to-head series to continue for at least one more game on Wednesday.


MLB Pick: Twins, Tigers ‘under’ 8½ (-110)

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