MLB Pick: Total Value Play of the Day Wednesday

LT Profits Sports Group

Wednesday, August 14, 2013 4:00 AM GMT

Each day the LT Profits Sports Group seeks out a total that simply does not add up and therefore offers the most value that day. Here is their Total Value Play of the Day for Wednesday.

Runs should be hard to come by in the Lone Star State Wednesday night when Tyler Thornburg and the Milwaukee Brewers (52-67, 25-36 away) pay a visit to Matt Garza and the Texas Rangers (69-51, 33-25 home) in the second game of a brief two-game series from Rangers Ballpark in the Arlington, TX at 8:05 ET.

The posted total at Pinnacle Spots is 8½ for this contest with the current odds on the ‘under’ set at -103.

The Brewers upset the Rangers 5-1 as +179 underdogs in the series opener on Tuesday, but luckily for Texas it maintained its one-game division lead in the American League West when the Oakland A’s lost to the last-place Astros last night. The Rangers have also quietly been one of the better ‘under’ teams in baseball as after again failing to surpass the total Tuesday, the ‘under’ is now 71-43-6, 62.3 percent in all Rangers’ games this year.

Part of the reason for that is that Texas has not been as offensively potent as past seasons, ranking only 12th in the majors in runs scored at 4.36 per game, and yet the Rangers' offensive reputation has allowed oddsmakers to pad their total a totals a tad. Another reason is that Texas is ranked fourth in the American League in team ERA at 3.65, and the Rangers bolstered their rotation further by acquiring Garza just before the trading deadline.

Granted, Garza has not been lights out in his last two starts while allowing four earned runs on each occasion, but he is still 2-1 with a 3.38 ERA and 1.02 WHIP in a Texas uniform with 24 strikeouts against only five walks in 29.1 innings, and he is now facing a National League team that he dominated when he faced them as a member of the Chicago Cubs earlier this year, limiting the Brewers to one run in seven innings with 10 strikeouts vs. one walk.

He is also facing a Milwaukee lineup struggling vs. right-handed pitchers as of late, batting a mere .202 against them while averaging 3.03 runs per nine innings over the last 10 games. Furthermore the Brewers are batting only .238 and averaging 3.60 runs vs. righties on the road for the entire season.

The Brewers are tied with the Cubs for last place in the National League Central, so they can afford to experiment with their starting pitching. The 24-year-old Thornburg has made seven relief appearances at the Major League level this season, but it is his two starts that have the Brewers excited about his prospects as a starter in the future.

In fact, Thornburg has yet to allow an earned run in his two starts vs. the Cubs and Giants covering 12 innings. He went six innings on each occasion and allowed a total of 11 hits with 10 strikeouts, and he could be tough again here vs. a Texas offense that as mentioned is not as good as past years, especially with leading home run and RBI producer Nelson Cruz suspended for the regular season, and that has never faced him before.

Therefore, look for the success of the Texas ‘under’ this year to continue on Wednesday.

[gameodds]3/241345/?r-1=238-92-43-349-192/us[/gameodds]

MLB Pick: Brewers, Rangers ‘under’ 8½ (-103)