MLB Pick: Total Value Play of the Day Wednesday

LT Profits Sports Group

Wednesday, August 7, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

Wednesday, Aug. 7, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

Each day the LT Profits Sports Group seeks out a total that simply does not add up and therefore offers the most value that day. Here is their Total Value Play of the Day for Wednesday.

Do not look for many fireworks on Getaway Day Wednesday when Alexi Ogando and the Texas Rangers (64-50, 31-26 away) pay a visit to Tommy Hanson and the Los Angeles Angels (51-61, 30-31 home) in the final game of a three-game series from Angel Stadium in Anaheim, CA at 10:05 ET.

The posted total at Pinnacle Spots is 8 for this contest with the current odds on the ‘under’ set at -118.

The Rangers have taken the first two games of this series in Anaheim despite the absence of leading power source Nelson Cruz, winning 5-2 Monday night in the first game after Cruz was suspended for the rest of the regular season for his part in the Biogenesis scandal and then winning 8-3 on Tuesday. That leaves second place Texas just one game behind the Oakland Athletics in the American League West while preparing to leave for Houston after this game.

The Angels have been arguably the biggest busts in all of baseball this year given their enormous payroll as they have lost three straight games and nine of their last 12 to fall to 13 games behind the Athletics while in fourth place in the West, even trailing the Seattle Mariners by one-half game. The Halos are starting to show signs of mailing the rest of this season in as they prepare to head east to Cleveland immediately after this contest.

Texas starter Ogando has been very consistent if not spectacular this season, allowing three earned runs or less in each of his last nine starts and in 12 of his 13 starts overall in a year that was interrupted by a stint on the Disabled List. The downside is that Ogando has gone seven innings just once all season, but the upside is that the outing came vs. these Angels when he allowed two earned runs on six hits in those seven innings.

Thus it may be that Ogando could not have found a better opponent against whom to possibly try and save his spot in the starting rotation with Colby Lewis possibly a week away from coming off the DL himself. Despite the limited innings, Ogando is 4-3 with a presentable 3.26 ERA, and perhaps more importantly he has the support of a Texas bullpen that is ranked fourth in the American League with a 3.04 ERA.

It also helps to be facing an Angels’ lineup that resembled a Triple-A lineup last night after Mike Trout, and that could very well be without the disabled Albert Pujols for the remainder of the season.

Hanson has had a disappointing season just like his teammates this year, although he has a legitimate excuse after going through the horror of suddenly losing his younger half-brother early in the season. Hanson has still managed a winning 4-2 record, but with an ugly 5.29 ERA and 1.54 WHIP. Still, Hanson has a chance to succeed tonight as he tossed a Quality Start in his only career outing vs. the Rangers in April, and that was with Cruz in the lineup.

Cruz was leading the Rangers in home runs with 27 and in RBI with 76 at the time of his suspension, and even with that, Texas ranks an uncharacteristically low 12th in the Major Leagues in scoring this season at 4.30 runs per game, a figure that is almost certain to drop the rest of the way with the results of the last two nights notwithstanding.

Finally the ‘under’ is 9-3-1 in the Rangers’ last 13 road games and look for that trend to continue for at least one more game on Wednesday.


MLB Pick: Rangers, Angels ‘under’ 8 (-118)

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